Marco Talks

Out with the old, in with the new

2009-01-05T16:35:00.002-06:00

After a month hiatus, I've returned, partially because I have a lot to say about the Cubs off-season thus far.

First off, Kerry Wood leaving still makes me sad to this day. It's unfortunate, but I understand that it's a business move. A good business doesn't take personal feelings into considerations when making moves. It's really sad, but again, there's no way the Cubs could have fit him in long term. He would have made at least 5 million due to arbitration, and then the Cubs wouldn't have been able to fit in Milton Bradley (see below).

What did we do when we let Wood go? We traded our best pitching prospect for Kevin Gregg. Kevin Gregg. Are you kidding me? Worst baseball move of the off-season (just above Raul Ibanez getting 3/36 from Philly). I have no problem with trading a reliever that may not make it, and one that's definitely a few years away. I do have a problem with who we got for him. We couldn't get anyone better? Come on, Jim! Wasn't Gregg supposed to be non-tendered?! Geez!!

Secondly, trading Jason Marquis was a good move for both sides. Seriously, Jason Marquis isn't THAT terrible. He's not good for $10 million, but he's definitely useful for 5. Compare his numbers to Jon Garland, who will probably make 9-10 million dollars. Compare his numbers to Carlos Silva... he's arguably better than both of those. And he's definitely better per dollar now. The Rockies sent Luis Vizcaino the Cubs way. Vizcaino is an average middle reliever, and it's a spot that the Cubs need some help in. It's a good move for the Cubs, pending Marquis' physical, because the Cubs saved $5 million.

The following move was to sign Aaron Miles to a deal. The deal was for two years and gave the Cubs another utility infielder. Miles signing led to a trade -- Mark DeRosa to the Indians for 3 minor leaguers. This move allowed the Cubs to save an additional $4.3 million -- the difference between DeRosa's and Miles' deal. I'm not thrilled about the deal, as DeRosa was one of my favorite players on the team. But let's face it, the $9.3 million saved was necessary to make moves that made the team better. Again, I didn't like the move at first, but you have to move on past attachments. Hendry did that, and partially stocked the farm system for a future move. I don't want to speculate who it is, but it's not Peavy right now. I hope it's not Roberts, either. Maybe a mid-season move? Of the 3 prospects, Stevens is the best. Don't get caught up in Gaub's K total. He has a 93 MPH fastball with some location and a very good curve. Guys with plus curve's usually rack up high K totals in the lower minors. Archer has some potential as a back end starter.

What the deal also allows for is to platoon Miles and LBR (Mike Fontenot) at 2nd base. Again, look at Fontenot's stats. Similar to Chase Utley with his splits. He's also a better fielder than DeRosa. I do have a problem with Aaron Miles getting more than 150 at bats. He doesn't provide us with a leadoff hitter because he doesn't like to look at pitches. He fights some off, but never walks. He, like Theriot, doesn't help the lineup unless they're hitting singles. Theriot does walk, but you have to adjust his batting average for all the base running mistakes he makes. It's a cheap platoon, but I just want to make sure Fontenot is seeing a lot of playing time at the 7th or 2nd spot in the order.

So what did we save all this money for? Milton Bradley. "Batshit Crazy Milton Bradley." The guy can play. The guy wants to win. He led the AL in OPS last year at .999, and OBP and .436. We might have slightly overpaid for him, but when you compare it to Pat Burrell's deal, it's a good price. Burrell is a) right handed b) a lot less athletic c) two years older -- so good move. Don't give me anything about his behavior. If you really look back and recap all the aggression, you'll find it surprising. Nothing has happened since '04, except Mike Winters calling Bradley "a f*cking piece of sh*t." And that was BS -- Winters isn't a pro umpire anymore, and rightfully so. The only problem I have is his ability to stay on the field. We've gotten lucky with Harden, hopefully we get lucky with Bradley. I'm hoping for 125 games, and I'd be really happy with that.

I understand we haven't given up on Kosuke Fukudome, but I also realize that as a good business practice, you can't make business decisions based on sunk costs. Kosuke is a sunk cost, in my mind. You can't go on thinking he's your RF because then you're screwed. If you're not going on 101 years without a World Series, you can take a chance on Kosuke. Now, I hope he turns out to be a hell of a CF, both offensively and defensively, but I understand that you cannot assume that he can do that in RF. Not when you can make an upgrade.

So overall, I give Hendry a C- on his moves this year. Yes, he traded my two favorite players, but he's slowly improving the team. I have no problem with some of the moves he made, but I do have a problem with who he got instead. I understand he's trying to make the team better, and maybe the team will be better, but as of right now, the Cubs are not better. They're just not. They're less right handed. This is also the first year we've really had a budget and had to abide by it. We can't just spend money on a shortstop, right fielder, closer, starter, etc. This is why I wanted to at least wait on Dempster. If Lowe is getting 3/36 offers, we could have gotten Dempster at a bigger discount. Maybe 5/50 or 5/55 or even 4/40. Nope, we had to go do it right away, when we're cash strapped! Let's hope he makes one more move...

Marquette vs. Chicago State - Game Recap

2008-11-18T03:34:00.002-06:00

The Marquette Golden Eagles won game number 1,399 in exciting fashion, as they beat Chicago State 106-87 on Monday night.

Marquette’s win was filled with history, as their 106 points was the highest in a single game since 1980.

The Golden Eagles also scored over 90 points for the second straight time. The last time MU did this was in 1994-1995 when they rattled off three straight 90 point outings.

Yet, the team wasn’t happy. The defense was the problem, head coach Buzz Williams said.
I'm not trying to be a prophet or foresee the future, but we can't allow teams to score 51 points [in the second half] in our building," Williams said. "To be honest with you, you can't allow teams to score 51 points whether you're playing at a park or no matter what gym.

“It’s just not consistent with good basketball, period.”

Another reason why the Cougars from Chicago State hung 87 on Marquette was the play of David Holston. Holston was unbelievable, scoring 33 points on 11-22 shooting. He also hit seven 3-pointers, tying a Bradley Center record. John Cantrell was the only other scorer in double figures for the Cougars with 21.

In a game that featured 56 fouls, Williams had many lineups on the court, and it was tough to find a flow to the game. Williams’ starting lineup finished with 17 total fouls.

“We spend an inordinate amount of time talking about defending without fouling,” Williams said. “We work on it every single day, but we have to get better at it. And we have to get a lot better at it really quick.”

Despite all the whistles and downright sloppy play, Marquette still managed to put up all those points. "Buzz reminds us every day that we're not an offensive-oriented team," junior Lazar Hayward said. "We can score baskets. That'll never be a problem. We want our defense to create our offense."

Senior Wes Matthews led the way with 26 points. Williams followed on Hayward’s comments - “Wes’s scoring is derived from what he’s doing on the other end and he’s playing with great energy. He’s [scoring] in a myriad of ways.” Matthews was very active in the box score. He added 9 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 blocks and 2 steals, while shooting 10-10 from the line.

Hayward added that these past two games have made Matthews more comfortable. “[Buzz’s] offense is predicated on guys who can do a lot of different things, so I think that’s why he stands out this year.”

They shot 52% from the field and 42% from three to help their cause. Hayward added 21 points and Jerel McNeal had 17.

Sophomore forward Pat Hazel stepped up again Monday night with 10 points and 5 rebounds. He also recorded 2 blocks. Although he may have more confidence, Williams said that he needs to continue to improve. “Everyday he’s getting a little more bounce back. It says a lot for his character. But I’ve stopped practice more times for Pat Hazel than the rest of those 8 guys combined. Can he keep that up? He’s gotta be better.”

The other concern for the Golden Eagles was Dominic James’ woes from the charity stripe. James shot 2-9 and was seen after the game shooting free throws in the Bradley Center.

The next game will be on Saturday as the UWM Panthers come across town to the Bradley Center. If Marquette can win, they will become the 50th program in NCAA history to reach the 1,400-win mark.

That was the game article that I wrote for Marquettehoops.com. My opinionated thoughts:

Pat Hazel is averaging 8.5 points per game. It's going to drop. He gets his points from dump offs and from put backs. He's not a back-to-the-basket scorer, nor is he a face-up scorer. We're going to see a lot of Pat Hazel in athletic lineups. But let's face it, he can't be relied on to continue this in the Big East. With Dwight playing limited minutes, I'm cheering for

Dominic James - I can't wait for the boo-birds to start about Da Kid. Seriously, if you're hatin' on Dominic, then just wait til he's gone. Nic will be there when it counts, guaranteed. When motivated, find a better on-ball defender than Nic. With the new offense Buzz is throwing out there, there's a great need for a floor general, and that's what James will have to be. Will it limit his offense? Yes, but it'll greatly help the team. And that's what's important.

Lazar (My Boy) Hayward and Wes Matthews - They definitely fit this new offense, almost to a tee. Both are so versatile and are so difficult to stop in the paint. When they get the ball within 12 feet of the hoop, they're dangerous. Look for both to average 16 per game this year... no joke. Wes is playing like a boss lately, droppin' 27 and 26. He's always had this talent, but now he's finally showing it off and taking over games. Let's see what he brings vs. UWM.

Peavy Thoughts

2008-11-08T16:23:00.002-06:00

Well, it's been a whirlwind of rumors around baseball this year. What's amazing is that there's a ton more rumors now than there ever has been. I think it has to do with extra blogs, not just MLBtraderumors.com, but journalists blogging from major newspaper outlets, too. It makes it even more exciting. As a Cubs fan, I always joke that the offseason is my favorite season because it gives a lot of teams hope.

When I made my offseason prediction, I dismissed Peavy as a legit possibility. But I was definitely wrong. I cannot believe the Cubs have the pieces to make this happen, but it sounds like it just may happen.

I still think that the Braves are the front runners, just because they have much better prospects than we have. They refuse to give up Jurrjens and Kelly Johnson, but they'll give up Escobar and parts. They have a ton of pieces in the minors... they're the main threat. The Dodgers have to really give up a lot because they're in the division, so I don't see it happening. We have a lot of MLB ready players that are cheap and controllable, and the good part is, a lot of them don't have a spot on this team.

So who would be involved in a deal? Your guess is as good as mine, but let's throw names out. I'm sure they're going to want Sean Marshall, Ronny Cedeno, and Felix Pie. They could definitely use a few outfielders, and Felix is a guy that Kevin Towers has had interest in previously. I would love to see Felix get a shot with the Cubs, but I don't think it's going to happen with Lou at the helm. Also, which big prospects will be involved? Ceda and Samardzija is who have been rumored in a deal, but Samardzija has a no trade clause. Ceda we actually got from the Padres for...get this... Todd Walker. Donnie Veal, Mitch Atkins and Andrew Cashner have also been rumored in deals. Mike Fontenot even has value as a 2B with a lot of pop. But the one that we haven't mentioned is Josh Vitters. Vitters is an all-world prospect, and to be honest, I don't want him involved. I'll deal all of AAA for Peavy before I touch Vitters. Josh is going to hit for years to come, and if he improves his defense, there's no reason he can't be David Wright.

If we can do a deal for Peavy, again, we should do it. The time is now, the team isn't getting any younger anytime soon.

And don't let the Cubs/Jim Hendry fool you when he says we can get him and Dempster. That's not possible. But he's not going to say "hey, we're going after Peavy and not Dempster" because if we don't get Peavy, he doesn't have to mend anything with Demp. See what I mean? If we can go into the season with Peavy, Zambrano, Harden, Lilly, and _______, then we're set, and don't really need Dempster. Was his season a fluke? Possibly and I don't want to take that chance. Peavy's better, at any price.

Other thoughts: Milton Bradley wants 4 years, and if we get Peavy, you can forget about signing a top notch FA outfielder. That means Bradley, Dunn, Abreu, Ibanez, etc are off the table, unless we can move a high salary (like Marquis) and have the other team eat his whole salary. Who's still on the table? Jeremy Hermida, possibly. Rumor has it that Beinfest is trying to package Hermida and Olsen together... Olsen's a headcase. Rumor also has it that the Cubs/Fish are talking trade, but I really don't want Olsen unless we can deal him to SD for Peavy and others.

What do you want to see and what do you think this team can do? Leave comments!

Revisiting my 2008 Cubs Projections

2008-10-28T21:59:00.003-05:00

Let’s just put it this way, I don’t always do a good job projecting an offense. In fact, it was my first time projecting baseball players, and I did a poor job.

We’re going to start at the top of the order with Alfonso Soriano.

My Prediction: .291/.352/.553 – 37 HR, 93 RBI and 17 SB
Actual: extrapolated to 625 AB:
AB: 625 HR: 40 RBI: 103 BB: 59 SO: 142 SB: 26 CS: 4 AVG: .280 OBA: .344 SLG: .532

You can see that the OBP, SLG and AVG were all within 20 points, and the AVG and OBP was right around 10 off. I was a little optimistic of him, even saying he would get MVP votes. Had he played the whole year, he probably would have gotten those votes. He ran a little more than I projected, but that’s a good thing!

Second in the order, we have Ryan Theriot.
My Prediction: .274/.336/.351 – 2 HR, 29 RBI and 35 SB
Actual: AB: 580 HR: 1 RBI: 38 BB: 73 SO: 58 AVG: .307 OBA: .387 SLG: .359

Nobody saw this coming. He had the 2nd most multi hit games (behind Lance Berkman, Romo) and walked 73 times. Nobody saw the spike in OBP. Now, projecting him next year will be even tougher. He didn’t really show anything that says he’ll stay at this level. I still want a new shortstop, but a repeat of this performance would be okay, I guess.

Third in the order, we have Derrek Lee.

My Prediction: .316/.408/.543 – 31 HR, 110 RBI and 9 SB
Actual: AB: 623 HR: 20 RBI: 90 BB: 71 SO: 119AVG: .291 OBA: .361 SLG: .462

Oh boy. The lack of power was a definite surprise. Ask ZiPS, PECOTA, Tim Dierkes, BleedCubbieBlue. Everyone had him around 28-35 HR. Is he in decline? Most definitely, and it’s not because he’s old. He can thank Rafael Furcal for this power outage.
Aramis Ramirez hit fourth, and again, I overestimated his slugging percentage.

My Prediction: .307/.368/.589 – 37 HR, 121 RBI
Actual: AB: 554 HR: 27 RBI: 111 BB: 74 SO: 94 AVG: .289 OBA: .380 SLG: 518 I did okay on this one, but again, overestimated the slugging percentage big time. Had he hit 36+ home runs, he would have equaled my prediction. He’ll return next year and with a lot more power.

Fifth in the order was Jim Edmonds, but since we didn’t have him, I’m not going to say what I predicted. I said he was done, as did everyone else, but he proved me wrong and I’m glad he did. My Felix projection sucked… you can read it if you want to, if you go to the March archive…

Sixth in the order was Mark DeRosa. I predicted a jump in his power, but not this much.
My Prediction: .278/.369/.450 – 17 HR and 68 RBI
Actual: .285 OBA: .376 SLG: .481 21 and 87

He did more than hit more homers, he also had more extra base hits, which is the reason why his slugging percentage jumped. It was once at .500 in the middle of September. I give myself a little credit for this one, as the spot in order was the key for him this year (6th or 7th)

Seventh was rookie of the year, Geovany Soto. I nailed it.

My prediction: .281/.356/.481 – 21 HR and 76 RBI
Actual: .285 OBA: .364 SLG: .504 23 HR 86 RBI

Boom. I had him pegged at 450 at bats, and he got 494, so my RBI totals would have been closer. He walked a little more than I thought, but what a season for him. Can’t say I didn’t expect it, though!

Eighth was Kosuke. If April was the only month in the season, Kosuke would have been amazing… but it’s not.

My prediction: .279/.383/.449 – 14 HR, 71 RBI

BCB Projected:
AB: 568 R: 92 H: 169 2B: 39 3B: 5 HR: 19 RBI: 88 BB: 72 SO: 99
AVG: .297 OBA: .376 SLG: .481

Actual:
AB: 501 R: 79 H: 129 2B: 25 3B: 3 HR: 10 RBI: 58 BB: 81 SO: 104
AVG: .258 OBA: .359 SLG: .379

I originally had .499 slugging, but I definitely meant .449, as that what was saved on my word document. So, basically, he fooled all of us, especially Cubs management. On the bright side, my prediction wasn’t as bad as BCB’s.

In the end, I’m not the smartest predictor, but I hit a few, missed badly on a few, and was kind of close on a few. Next year, I hope to hit on a few more!

Mailbag: Marquette Madness

2008-10-26T18:21:00.005-05:00

Thanks to reader Jim for the question. Again, you guys can contact me at marco.radenkovich@marquette.edu with any questions. If you're lucky, you'll be included in the mailbag!

Jim asks "Who are the new guys this season? And overrall, how was the Madness event? What can we expect for this year?

Alright, where to begin.

Jim, I'm concerned, to be blunt. I mean, I spend a lot of time November thru April on this team, and after what I saw, I'm a little concerned. The questions that keep coming to me are "How good are we gonna be?" and "Who are these new guys?" I choose to answer those together...

We're going to be as good as are new guys are. Plain and simple. Jerel, Nic, Wes and Lazar are our four best players, and we know what they're going to provide. The question marks are definitely the new guys. Nobody's seen them, and what we can take from them this early are stats and videos, neither of which make any difference to me. Our two JUCO guys had ridiculous stats, but what does that mean? To me, nothing. Our new center from Texas had ridiculous block totals, and played very well, but that was in high school against kids that were nowhere near as athletic as he is. Scary? Yes.

Madness was my first chance to see some of the new guys in person. Joe Fulce is an athletic freak of nature that has a decent basketball IQ. What he can do right now is kind of similar to what Trend could do at the end of last year... only 4 inches shorter. Joe can defend really well, has great explosiveness and is in top shape. He should play 15-20 minutes for us this year, and they'll be filled with energy. His BB IQ is okay right now, and it'll get better as he plays with the guys more. Some have called him Shawn Marion, and it seems like a decent comparison, but a homeless man's Shawn Marion (yes, worse than a poor man's). Personally, I love Joe. Joe's HYSTERICAL! The guys love him, he's always smiling but serious at the same time. He's really humble and one of those kids that you want representing thet school.

Jimmy's the next new guy. As "silky smooth" as he was in JUCO, he's not that smooth here yet. I don't know why, again, it's tough to judge from Madness because you're running an offense which everyone knows, and playing against people that everyone knows. His offense looked a little choppy, and his jumpshot looked UGLY. He didn't shoot well from the FT line and doesn't seem to have any touch. His unwillingness to go HARD to the hoop may hurt him, because he can get to the hole, he just shys away from contact. Again, another really funny kid. Jerel loves him, and called him the best defender on the team. Wow. I wouldn't go that far, but he's good. And he's willing to help the team wherever. He has confidence, too, as he walks around the campus with that swagger of confidence, and that makes me believe he'll be a major factor real soon.

Chris O'Tule is someone that will surprise. And I think he's the key for this team. If he can do what Dwight did last year, and if Dwight can do what Ooze did last year.. then we're at least a 20 win team, and maybe a little more once you factor in the improvements the big 4 made. He has pretty good hands, and really knows how to board. Went tough to the hoop last night, and defended the hoop well. He fouled Wes pretty hard on one end of the floor, and he showed that he can definitely block some shots. If he learns how to finish with authority, then he makes this team 2 or 3 wins better. These are all if's, but the kid is ready for the fight, you can definitely see it in his eyes. It's such a cliche, but he has that extra gear that Ooze never displayed.

But we're still small. Does Trevor leaving hurt us? Yes. We don't have much depth at all, and that's what limits this team. Depth is a must in the toughest league in the nation. We have depth from 1-3 but not at 4-5 positions. If it were based on talent and fight, we'd be competing for a national championship. We can do it, but a lot of people are going to have to pick up the slack.

You know what else bothers me a little? The schedule at the end of the year. Our opening to the big east is really easy, and we need to win our first 6 games. We can't have any slip ups, because the end of the schedule is nasty. We better have a really good resume going into those last 5 games, and if we're a bubble team... uh oh.

I really like the offense though, this year. If you read Murff's post (Marquettehoops.com), you'll see what I mean. There's a LOT of movement, unlike last year.

Another highlight from Madness.... Buzz didnt really connect with students in the last 6 months. Students still couldn't pick him out from 10 guys. But, the guy is really cool. He's so down to earth it's amazing. We were front row (that's usually the norm with the guys and I) and my friend Romo had a Texas flag (since most of the team is from Texas and so is the coach) and he came up and signed it, talked to Romo - who's from Texas - for a good minute or two, and then talked to him for a few minutes after. During his speech at Madness, Buzz pointed him out, too. The flag will be a staple at all of the games for the rest of the year. During the scrimmage and dunk fest, he spent time walking around and shook EVERYONE'S hand, at least all of the students. The guy knows what he's doing... give him time and this team will be on top of the world.

I talked to the recruit. Tall white kid, haha. He's a stronger version of Fitz, and his name has shot up through the rankings. 6'9'' 220 with a willingness to rebound. Shoots well, but not as flexible as Fitz.

I predict 4th in the conference as ultra optimistic.
I predict 6th in the conference as ultra realistic.
I predict 9th in the conference as ultra pessimistic.

Defined: Lazar Hayward

2008-10-26T17:29:00.003-05:00

This article was posted on Marquettehoops.com - I am on staff for Marquettehoops.com. Visit for all your Marquette Basketball needs!

Two days away from the “official” start of the 2008-09 season and the Marquette Golden Eagles have a lot of questions surrounding the team. Some of those questions surround junior Lazar Hayward this year.

But why the concern?

After all, the rock-solid forward from Buffalo, N.Y. proved last season that he could play post defense, and he showed that he was a big-time threat on the offensive side of the court by becoming the third-leading scorer on a team that averaged 76 points per game.

Yet, with the lack of size on Marquette’s roster this year, the 6’6” Hayward finds his name mentioned among the possible concerns. However, with the roles of a lot of players still in the air, his role is concrete, and that’s one thing he’s happy about.

“Buzz told me that I would be doing the same things as I did last year,” Hayward said. “Over the offseason, he said he wanted me to focus on getting stronger, especially defensively.”

Hayward has bulked up this year, and he may need every ounce to lead Marquette to victory. He’s the team’s leading returning rebounder at 6.5 boards per game.

Conditioning will be important, as the lack of quality depth on the interior may force Hayward to see even more than his 25.4 minutes per game last season.

The lack of depth also means that Hayward may be prone to more fouls with all the time he’ll be spending around bigger players on defense.

“All of us (big guys) have worked on not fouling as much,” senior center Dwight Burke said. “It’s key for a guy like Lazar because he can do so much on the other side of the ball. Keeping him in the game gives us another offensive weapon.”

This realization was a motivating factor in Hayward’s offseason strength training.
“Extra strength is always a help,” he said. “When you can push a little more before your opponent gets the ball, it gets you in better position. Then we don’t foul as much.”

Although his main focus this summer was improving his defense and conditioning, Hayward still found time to fine-tune his offensive game.

“Buzz wants to move me around a lot this year,” Hayward said. “I can post up a little more, but he also want me to continue working on my outside game to cause any sort of mismatch [I can]. He’s not going to limit me to one area – I’ll be moving all over the place.”

Opponents need to respect Hayward’s shooting ability. He shot 45% from downtown last year, and his ability to pull defenders out of the paint will help the rest of the offense immensely.

“It’s great that he can stretch the defense out,” senior guard Wes Matthews said. “If a bigger guy is on him, he can pull it outside and take him. If a smaller guy is on him, he can take him into the post. He will create a lot of matchup problems.”

This is a much different season for Hayward. He averaged 12.8 points per game a year ago, compared to 6.5 his freshman year. What changed from his freshman year to his sophomore year?

“I kept talking to my dad about my prep school days, and he reminded me about playing pick-up games. You have to win to keep the court, and you don’t want to stop playing, so you do everything you can to win.”

As the killer instinct came back, so did the confidence. After shooting only 21 percent from beyond the arc freshman year, he found his stroke last season. And it’s a good thing because his teammates are counting on him.

“I don’t know how else to explain it, but Lazar may be our most important player,” senior Jerel McNeal said. “When he goes, we go.”

With a team that’s full of question marks before Marquette Madness, the Golden Eagles will soon realize that Lazar Hayward is not a concern, but a definite.

Cubs 2009 Offense: My Prediction

2008-10-23T01:47:00.002-05:00

Cubs Off-Season Plan (Offense)
…for what it’s worth anyway.

As of right now, my thoughts are finally concrete. I have spent endless hours thinking about it and talking it over with friends at school. After listening to some input, I’m ready to give you my 25 man roster for 2009.

If I were Jim Hendry edition:

C - Geovany Soto is obviously the long term plan at catcher. The rookie of the year needs to be locked up long term, even though he’s nowhere near arbitration. I would think 6/36 would be a fair deal. But the real issue is the backup catcher spot. Do we keep Henry Blanco? Our other options are Wellington Castillo or Koyie Hill. Koyie is a great story, don’t get me wrong, but I don’t want him getting 150 at bats for this team. Keeping Hank White at a 1 year deal with an option for a second year may be the best move. He just had his best offensive year EVER. And his defense is great. His value goes as far as keeping him around to mentor Geo a little longer, and that can’t be underestimated.

1B – Trade Derrek Lee. It’s a very popular idea, but I think it’s a move that has to be made. Where do you move him? San Francisco could be a destination, and contrary to Al of BCB’s thoughts, we won’t be getting any pitching. I think we eat none of Lee’s deal, and get Randy Winn in return. More on Winn a little later. Then, what do we do about first base? Hoffpauir is not the answer. He’s not going to hit lefties, and seems like a streaky hitter with a very long swing. Dude’s also 28. If I was a small market GM, I’d platoon him and probably could get by with .270/30/100 between two guys. But, since the Cubs are big market…you sign Mark Texieria. Throw money at him, and not at Dempster. You throw him into the 3rd spot in the order, and he’s the impact hitter we’re missing.

2B – I’d like to see more Mike Fontenot. Comparing him with Utley isn’t apples and oranges. Calling him a poor man’s Chase Utley definitely works.

Fontenot .305/.390/.514
Utley .292/.380/.534

What’s interesting is that Utley plays against lefties, and hits them pretty well (and he homered of Kazmir tonight). Fontenot doesn’t, but hit a decent .247 vs. LHP. You don’t give him many at bats vs. lefties, but playing him more makes the whole team better.

DeRosa may let down in 2009. He set career highs with his .285/.376/.481 last year, and at 33, I don’t expect that to repeat. I’d expect more of a .275/.363/.460 type year, which is still above average at second. Keeping him at second for 60% of the games, and in the outfield for another 20% is a good idea.

3B – Ramirez. There’s no way they should move him.

SS – I guess Theriot. I’m not high on him as of right now, but in June I found myself backing him. His defense sucks. His base running sucks. His ability to get on base doesn’t suck, and he has a very nice contract. Lou loves him, and one of Lou’s faults is that he sometimes goes to guys he likes more than going to the better player. I expect Theriot to be moved, and then we’ll find someone else to back up the infield. I wouldn’t mind an Adam Everett, Marco Scutaro, John McDonald type; guys that are all glove and no bat. Or even a Felipe Lopez, a guy that can play all IF positions and switch hit...

LF – Soriano. If you move him, you’re not going to get anything for him. When he’s hot, he’s the best player in the NL. But the problem is that he isn’t always hot. What would his numbers have been if he didn’t miss 35 games with injury? Would he have hit 40? I think it was a definite possibility, and could have garnered more MVP votes. When he broke his hand, it was discouraging because he was hitting and because he was running more. He was finally starting to move. Now that he’s 100% healthy, I expect him to patrol left a little better, and hit 35 bombs and swipe 20 bags. He’ll also be hitting in a new spot, which will help his RBI total

CF – Reed Johnson/Felix Pie – I’ve yet to hear a good reason as to why Felix “won’t ever hit in the big leagues.” If you think that, I’m not saying he’s going to hit, but convince me why he won’t hit. After spending a lot of time in AAA this year, he came back up in September and showed that he could have quality at-bats. If you compare his numbers with Curtis Granderson in the minors, you’ll see that these numbers are very similar. The problem is, Lou is his manager, and he has no trust in Felix. Felix is a great talent, and I fear if we trade him, we’re selling low and he’s going to blow up wherever he goes.

Reed is a quality 4th outfielder; I really like him against LHP. I don’t like him when he’s a) in the 5th spot in the batting order or b) when he’s getting 400 at-bats per year. I don’t want to hear that he’s clutch. Just because he hit .350 with RISP doesn’t mean that he can do that every year. He made the most of his AB’s. But, to expect him to even hit .300 with RISP is wrong. Let’s not overvalue this guy based on his grit. We’re an organization that doesn’t need grit. We can get talent. That’s what I want to see on the field. He’s good, but not starting CF for a playoff team.

RF – Randy Winn – Where’s Kosuke you ask? We learn in business that there are some things called sunk costs. Kosuke is a sunk cost. If you operate based on sunk costs, you’re doomed. And so we should throw him at the end of the bench. If he returns to April form, then we have a good problem on our hands. But Randy Winn can flat play. He hits, runs and gets on base. He’s perfect for the top of the order because now Soriano won’t lead off. I’d probably rather have Brian Giles, but we have to deal for him, plus he’d have to waive his no trade clause. Can Winn play a little center, too? Let’s assume he can, a little

Batting Order vs. Lefties
RF – Winn
SS – Theriot
1B – Texieria
3B – Ramirez
LF – Soriano
C – Soto
2B – DeRosa
CF – Johnson

Batting Order vs. Righties
CF – Winn/ RF - Winn
2B – Fontenot / SS - Theriot
1B – Texieria / 1B - Texieria
3B – Ramirez / 3B - Ramirez
LF – Soriano / LF - Soriano
C – Soto / C - Soto
RF – DeRosa / 2B - DeRosa
SS – Theriot / CF – Pie

To me, this lineup will win. It has depth. It has more speed, a little more OBP and more “clutch” hitters, whatever that mean.

Bench – Blanco, Fukudome, Johnson/Pie, Fontenot, Felipe Lopez (Signed via FA)

Please leave comments, especially if you disagree. This is not the only thing I thought of, so convince me otherwise.

Random Thoughts: 2009 Cubs Lineup Changes

2008-10-14T02:52:00.002-05:00

So, here it is, 3:00 AM, and I'm thinking about the Cubs lineup for next year. I have a big Econ test tomorrow, as well as two tests on Wednesday. I'm ALMOST into Marquette Hoops mode, as Madness begins on the 25th. Til then, let's talk a little baseball...

Everyone wants to see a lineup shakeup, and after days of thinking about it, I think it's what the Cubs need. I haven't decided on what I would do, given the circumstances, but I've thought about a lot of things...

"Soriano needs to get out of the leadoff spot and put somewhere else" has been said so frequently since he's become a member of this team. So, I thought to myself, what would the current lineup be with Soriano out of the 1 spot? The problem with the lineup is that we don't know who the best hitter is. The best hitter should be hitting 3rd. Now, the Cubs 4 best hitters (in no particular order) are Soriano, Lee, Ramirez, Soto. What can we do with those four, now that Soriano's out of the leadoff spot?

1st, 2nd, Soriano, Ramirez, Lee, Soto?

1st, 2nd, Soto, Ramirez, Lee, Soriano?

1st, Soriano, Lee, Ramirez, Soto, 6th?

1st, Soriano, Ramirez, Lee, Soto...etc?

Does anyone see a pattern? Very, very, very right-handed heavy. I used to not believe in the lefty/righty stuff until Derek Lowe dominated us. Then Chad Billingsley, then Hiroki Kuroda...and in previous years, Livan Hernandez and Brandon Webb. All sinkerballers (besides Billingsley) will kill us with that order.

Lefties need to be mixed in at some point, no? I mean, we can sign Jimmy Edmonds, throw him 5th, and put the rest of the guys around him. We can hope Felix Pie can hit 20/20... but he's not a middle of the order hitter (more like a 7th hitter). We can play Mike Fontenot more, but is he really a 5th hitter, in front of guys like Soto and DeRosa?

So then my mind wandered... can you trade any of them? The answer: no. You can't. The only one you can deal is Lee, because of the fact that whoever loses out on Teixeria will have to go for Jason Giambi, Adam LaRoche, or Kevin Millahhhh. Derrek has 2/26 left on his deal. And what do you expect to get for a 33 year old 1B with declining skills both defensively and offensively. Believe me, it's not worth that much for a "leader" in the clubhouse. Do the Cubs ask for Chone Figgins from LA if they lost out on Tex?? And where the hell would you put him? He could a great leadoff/second hitter. Then, do you really want him and Theriot in the lineup? That's less OPS than National League Manny...and you would have "throw a slider at my knee and watch me whiff" Hoffpauir at first, at 29. Where the hell do you hit him? 5? Ok, let's try it...

Figgins, Theriot?, Ramirez, Soriano, Soto, Hoff, DeRo, Fontenot/Kosuke

Ugh.

So my final thought was to think rationally about the team and where it was going. And then I came up with this lineup...

Theriot, Fontenot, Ramirez, Lee, Soriano, Soto, DeRosa, Pie... only to find that we're still a lefty short.

Oh, if only Fukudome = Matsui.

Shit.

Do we re-sign Edmonds hoping he can slug .575 for us again? I don't think it'll happen, and with how old he is, I couldn't hope for an April more than .210/.290/.350 from him. The cold + the fact that he's old = bad news. Again, just speculation.

Do we have the money to go get another left handed bat? Dunn? Too inconsistent. Ibanez? Too old.

Do you have any ideas that don't involve us just signing everyone? No, Manny's not coming here, neither is Tex, and we don't have a chance in hell to deal for the hickest pitcher on the Padres. I haven't decided what could be done yet... Furcal to me is still an option, but may price himself out of here (he did once already).

Let's see what the Winter Meetings can bring.

Baseball 101...

2008-10-05T01:47:00.004-05:00

Here we are. This is the 100th anniversary, officially. Can I sleep? Hell no... (plus, I took a nap earlier today, so I'm all screwed up)

First off, thanks to all the Cubs bandwagon fans, especially the "new breed" fan. Thanks for jumping off.

Secondly, what's it going to take for this team to take the next level? That's what I'm here to talk about. After baseball season, my favorite season takes place during the winter meetings. Yes, I'm a geek.

How much money do the Cubs have for next year? Let's recap who we have on the team next year...

Zambrano - 17.75
Lilly - 12
Harden - 7 (Option, but they will pick it up)
Marquis - 9.875
Marmol - 0.35
Samardzija - 2
Gaudin - Arb. eligible (probably around 2.5)
Wuertz - Arb. eligible (probably around 1.5)
Cotts - Arb. eligible (probably around 1.5)
Guzman - 0.35
Hill - 0.43
Hart - 0.3925
Marshall - 0.35

K. Hill - 0.35
Soto - 0.35
Lee - 13
Hoffpauir - 0.35
DeRosa - 5.5
Theriot - 0.428
Cedeno - 0.35
Ramirez - 15.65
Fontenot - 0.35
Pie - 0.35
Fukudome - 11.5
Soriano - 16

Total "ish" - 120 Million dollars

Free Agents: Edmonds, Johnson, Wood, Dempster, Howry, Blanco

So how much can this team spend?! If they re-up Demp, you're looking at 4/48 at least. If you re-up Wood, you're looking at 3/24. Maybe look to re-sign Johnson but you need to let Felix play.

What does the team need? A left handed bat! One that can preferably play center or right. Also, we definitely need a lead off hitter. I'm saying you make another push for Roberts, sign Furcal or both. Theriot is not an everyday player, let's be honest. (Please make your claim in the comments.) Also, with Howry out, maybe another set up type reliever. I want to see Samardzija in the rotation at some point in his career.

This is just ideas being thrown out at 2:30 AM. I'll have something more complete tomorrow.

Til next year...

Friendly Confines

2008-10-01T21:04:00.004-05:00

If anyone wants my thoughts on this game, it's gonna be short. There isn't one person to blame, but as always, I'm going to throw out some stats and let you decide how to think about them.

Soriano is a combined 0-17 in the playoffs for the Chicago Cubs (in four games)

In those same four games, Aramis Ramirez is 1-15.

At least Theriot had two hits. Why in the hell wasn't he hitting 2nd?!

And actually being positive, does anyone remember DeRosa's last at-bat in the post-season last year? I do, Livan Hernandez threw him a 2-0 curve off the outside corner which he rolled over on (6-4-3). He had a good poke tonight; HOPEFULLY he can play right tomorrow night, and Fontenot can start at 2nd.

Why was Marshall left out there to face Manny? I mean, I don't know if anyone else gets him out, but now he's burnt for tomorrow... do you really expect him to be available? I don't. Neal Cotts, your table is ready. Good work, Lou.

Finally, TBS, we know it's been 100 years. We know. And damnit, Jeff Samardzija doesn't play football. Stop telling us that he played football. It doesn't matter anymore.

Here's what 'Duk has to say about it, for what it's worth... who the hell is 'Duk http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/And-the-plot-thickens-Dodgers-throttle-Cubs-in-;_ylt=Ar.fWVWngtqI5LuyKOJPI_OFCLcF?urn=mlb,111978

Til tomorrow.

Prediction? Nope. If Z throws 65% strikes, we'll win. If not, we'll lose.

Because I like beating dead horses...

2008-09-16T23:17:00.004-05:00

Drayton McLane - "Hey, there's a hurricane coming...what should we do? We have home games on Friday and Saturday, but there's not any power or anything. I know... we'll suspend the games! Play a double dip on Sunday, and one on Monday...genius!"

(Hurricane Ike brings 115 MPH winds and 183756 inches of rain through Houston...bringing parts of Reliant Stadium with it.)

McLane - "We can't move these games, we want the additional revenue! People will still come! Their houses are damaged and there are trees/powerlines everywhere, but we need the revenue!"

(Bud Selig orders the games to be moved to Milwaukee. Big surprise.)

McLane - "Damn! Now let's whine and complain like crazy..."

Cecil Cooper - "This is ridiculous."

And so it begins...

Now, as a die-hard Cubs fan, I know the Astros got screwed. And I think it's incredibly unfair. Really. I've heard everyone call this season a conspiracy to ensure the Cubs win a World Series and I really don't like it. If they're going to win, it's because they're GOOD, not because every team is laying down. So, I want fair. This wasn't. But what could possibly be fair?

Meanwhile, let's look at the options for where the games COULD be moved to. You can't use Tampa Bay, by the way, because, well, they played at their house last night. So you're left with Arizona, Atlanta, Arlington or Milwaukee. Atlanta and Arlington... close, but no roof and with the uncertainty of the weather... neither of those two were a good option. Arizona or Milwaukee will have to be the choice, and the commisioner Allan Selig chooses Milwaukee, making it a "home game" for the Cubs.

Let's analyze these two options. Do people realize that even if Selig moves it to "Bank Holdings Field" (I know it's Chase Field, but what happens if they get bought out like Bank One?) that the game is essentially a home game for the Cubs, too? Do people realize that Arizona is nothing but people that used to reside in Chicago/Suburbs AND that the Cubs were the big team in Arizona because the D Backs have been around since 98 only? That means that the game in Arizona would have 25,000 fans pulling for the Cubs. So, Bud, choose to bring your hometown more revenue, or Arizona more revenue. The choice is simple.

Now, I don't mind the decision, because the game HAD to be moved somewhere. Playing three games at the end of the year isn't good for ANYBODY. You push the playoffs back, you tire out a playoff team/maybe the playoff team doesnt play anyone because the games don't matter to them. This way, the games still matter a little bit. And they had a guy throw a no-hitter. It was magical.

But, now there's an asterisk on the no-hitter. I hear nothing but whining now from Astros fans. "We were screwed because we didn't get into Milwaukee until 2 PM. We had to care about our families safety! We were putting boards on windows, moving sandbags and all of that crap." Don't even start.

Your damn owner was the one that dragged this out so long! He tried to get every nickel and dime out of the potential game! He SHOULD have said, "Hey team, pack up your things, evacuate, and we'll figure things out later." Instead, they couldn't go anywhere and had to endure all the winds, rain, flodding, flying debris, etc. That's...inhumane? I think so.

I don't want to hear anymore of this garbage about fair and unfair. Sure, hurricane's suck. It's unfortunate, for reasons head and shoulders above baseball. But don't point fingers and whine when you should have them pointed at Drayton McLane, your wonderful owner.

Hopefully we can stop beating the dead horse.

Devaluing our father's stats

2008-09-11T20:37:00.002-05:00

Yes, I know it's been 6 weeks, but I have some goodies upcoming...

I’m going to start a new series here at Marco Talks. It’s called devaluing our father’s stats. Our parents and grandparents have followed stats that shouldn’t be used in evaluating a player’s performance or evaluating a pitcher’s performance. Since Bill James put statistical analysis into baseball, these popular stats are now pointless, and new statistics are much better in predicting a season.

For my first example, I’m using RBI. Why is RsBI a good stat? It shows that the player is good at getting runs home. It’s a counting stat that tells you how good of a run producer is…
Well, that’s what people used to think.

Now there are big time criticisms regarding RsBI. (It’s abbreviated for RUNS BATTED IN, so where people have gotten RBIs is beyond me… probably the same place B-W-Three’s was thought of. So I’m ripping off FJM and taking the RsBI.)

RsBI doesn’t take a few key factors into consideration, if we’re using RsBI as a judgment of how good a player is. First, does it take into consideration the players hitting in front of you? No. One example I’ll use is the 2008 Chicago White Sox. This is what the people on ESPN say, so this is what the rest of you believe: “Jermaine Dye is hitting .294 with 32 HR but only 85 RBI… wait a minute, why doesn’t he have more RBI? Well, he’s not driving in any runs besides what his home runs bring him, so he must not be a complete player. Therefore, we’re not going to consider him for the MVP. Instead, we’re going to vote Josh Hamilton! All he gives about is driving in runs, right? He’s soooo valuable because he drives in a lot of runs. And he beat his drug (self inflicted) addiction! Awesome, what a guy! Most valuable by far…”

I can hear Steve Phillips say this right now…and the scary thing is that he believes it.

Steve would also probably argue that the main goal as an offense is to score runs; scoring and driving them in. I would argue that the goal in baseball is different; not make outs. That’s my goal as a hitter, because if I don’t make an out, and you don’t make an out…holy cow, we’re probably going to score some runs by accident. And that’s the key, not making outs! That's why RBI is a worthless stat!

OK, I don’t hate RsBI; I love RBI as a descriptive statistic. If I'm looking at the box score for a game, I want to know who drove the runs in. It’s a way to find out who was key in the team’s win.

Or, to put it another way, would I want a team of nine hitters who were each going to have 100 RBI at the end of the year? Hell yes, I would. Who cares how they got them? That team will have scored 900+ runs.The problem is that RBI is not a good predictive statistic. The reason that I don't try and stack up past RBI totals when constructing a fantasy baseball roster, or even a real life example, is that, despite the fact that I want a lot of RBI, other statistics serve as better predictors of RBI than RBI do. Thus, when trying to maximize RBI, it's best to ignore it altogether (or at least marginalize it, pardon the hyperbole).

What stats should the common baseball fan be looking at? OPS is one of them. People often ask what they should be looking at with OPS… well OPS is combining the ability to get on base with the ability to hit and hit for power. For the geeks out there, it’s (OBP+SLG). Now, a good OPS is somewhere around .800. You’ll find Garrett Anderson, Torii Hunter and even Craig Biggio around there. To crack the top 100 of all time, get to .900. Since RBI is dependent on how the rest of your team is doing (as is runs), this shows how good you are at getting on base with how good you are at getting extra base hits. It doesn’t matter if little Johnny couldn’t get on base in front of you, and all you hit were solo jacks that year. It shows that you’re not making outs, and that’s the ultimate goal in baseball.

If you want to go a little farther and examine how people are doing based on a) ballparks they play in b) competition c) pitchers they've faced then you're going to love OPS+. OPS+ takes ALL of that into consideration, and to be honest, I have not a clue as to how it's calculated. Some super mainframe computer is computing it as we speak. So check that out. (By the way, average OPS+ is 100; a general manager's goal should be to ensure EVERYONE on his starting 8 are over 100+. If not, they're a liability offensively. Except Ryan Theriot.)

C'Mon, Andy!

2008-07-31T22:24:00.006-05:00

Most of you know this, but I wear Abercrombie and Fitch. And Hollister. And Ruehl. And other preppy clothing. It's one of the things I enjoy. Now, I don't care if you jab at me because that's what I wear. It's all fun and games, til someone thinks of me in a different light because of what I wear.

Where am I going with this? Simple. There's this wonderful fellow, Andy, that helped start onmilwaukee.com (Thank God he did that, because people read/give a shit about it.) Then Andy wrote this blog entry about "Cubs Fans."

http://onmilwaukee.com/sports/articles/cubsfans.html

So, part of it is true. There are a lot of drunk, stupid fans. But to classify them all together is just irresponsible and untrue.

I don't really find what he said to be too far from the truth, except about the 22 year oldAbercrombie "douchebags." Sure, they're at a lot of the games but that's not a representation of every single Cubs fan. I worked atAbercrombie and Hollister. When I go to games, I, too wear a backwards hat,cargo shorts, and a jersey. So I guess that makes me a douche bag? Sincewhen did clothing define the person? In that case, I can take every guy wearing a bright orange hat in the stands and call him a hillbilly. And you know what? That would PISS off everyone in Milwaukee, as if I walked up to a group of minorities and called them a racial slur. But he can sit behind his computer and call me a douche bag? Well, go F*ck yourself, Andy.

To call Wrigley a shithole is to call your stadium a marketing tool. Who wants to sit in the f*cking Mercedez Benz patio?! Or, who wants to sit inthe .300 club (used to be called that, now the rights were bought by somebig company)? Let's have the f*cking Chevrolet pride Crew come out in pickup trucks with 6 women in short shorts and tank tops run around like idiots throwing t-shirts to whoever yells the loudest? So for as stupid as you make us out to be, Andy, your stadium isn't the greatest. There's a goddamn play place in the 400 section, filled with slides, monkey bars and ball pits. Why do you need any entertainment when you're there to see a baseball game?! This struck a nerve today, and I read the article AFTER Gagne tried to hit Edmonds four times. What a bush attempt. That piece of shit, he's not even close to whathe used to be. Wait til Braun takes it in the earhole in Wrigley.

This is my letter to the guy today:

Andy,
My name is Marco Radenkovich, I'm a student writer for marquettehoops.com and have been known to admire your journalism in the past. But not today, sir. Your blog about "Cubs fans" is highly offensive, period.

Let me get this straight, you started onmilwaukee.com, you live in Wisconsin and are a huge Brewers fan...and you hate the Cubs. I'm not surprised.

So you're jealous because since the beginning of Miller Park, it's been Wrigley North. So you're jealous because the Crew swooned late last yearand the Cubs took the division. Let's face it, all Brewers fans hate Chicago people and especially Cubs fans. And you're right, everytime a Cubs fan says something to you, you cannot ever come back with anything. There's nothing there. So yes, I would be upset, too. The problem is that all of the Brewers fans sold their tickets to Cubs fans! Whine and complain all you want, Andy, but how in the hell are the Cubs fans in the season ticket holder's sections? Oh, they were SOLD to Cubs fans, so the Brewers fans could make a profit. That's why the stadium is half Cubs fans. And when the Cubs sweep the Brewers, that'swhy the place is roaring with "let's go Cubbies." And guess what, when a person jeers or heckles, it's acceptable behavior, because those people payed for the tickets! I don't mean they can cuss and be extremely inappropriate, but "so and so sucks" is pretty appropriate across the board at any park. But I guess you know that, since you've been on the road to see the Brewers play before. In reality, Cubs fans don't have much to be proud of, but here's where your argument is so flawed, it's hilarious. What the f*ck have the Brewers won, guy? Then, another fan going with the payroll argument. Look at the payrolls, and realize our "superstars" are getting paid more than your "superstars" because your'sare younger. Plain and simple, it's how baseball works. But Andy, I'm sure if you were the GM, you wouldn't have spent 10 million dollars on the sorry, roid user, Eric Gagne, would you? He cannot even throw at an opposing hitter, what a joke. And Mike Cameron? How much are the Brewers paying...per strikeout? How about Jeff Suppan? Or David Riske? Those are the big free agent signings that the Brewers had the past 2 years. And they have all failed. So before you throw random numbers out there, do some research. You make yourself look like every other Brewer fan that doesn't realize a) the Brewers CAN spend more money and b) that they do it foolishly. Plus, the Cubs RE-SIGNED Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Kerry Wood rather than just "buying them." Sure, the Cubs spent a lot of money on Alfonso Soriano, Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis. But guess how much Prince is going to cost when he needs a newdeal? How about Sheets or Sabathia? Don't go there, Andy. It's really not a good argument.

"Sosa supporters" - Get out of the 1990's, man! Nobody supports Sosa, infact, most Cubs fans (knowledgeable, douchebag, or other) hate him for walking out on his team in 2004. Sosa is as far from our memory as Greg Vaughn is to yours.And the fact that you sit here and say that Cubs fans know absolutely nothing about baseball history, when you call Wrigley Field a dump is an absolute joke. Have you been there? It probably has more tradition than Milwaukee all together? And - How many Brewers fans know that there used tobe a team in Milwaukee before the Brewers?! Not many, and I would know, I go to Marquette. Can you tell me why they moved the team, Andy? Was it because nobody came to the games when greats like Aaron, Matthews, and Spahn played?

So in short, go ahead and criticize the people you see there. But thank us for allowing you guys to re-sign Ben Sheets 4 years ago. Without us, would you have had the extra revenue? Think about it from a business persepctive.

This is a budding rivalry, so hate the rich, upper class Cubs fans. But realize before ALLL of that, there were the big time fans, the nuns that would keep score in the bleachers, and the people that don't have ticketsbut go to the streets along Wrigley just to say that they were apart of something special. It's not all drunks and rich kids, Andy. Take a trip toWrigley and check it out.

Differences between the Cubs and Brewers – Game Two

2008-07-30T12:12:00.002-05:00

On paper, these teams are very similar; great starting pitching, high powered offenses, and shaky bullpens.

But the Cubs are showing where they separate themselves from the Brewers.
First and foremost, look at the differences in their approaches. The Cubs have worked 4 full counts in the first 4 innings and are swinging at strikes. On the other side, the Brewers have stranded a few runners. Their approach (Branyan, Cameron, Kendall) with runners on first and second were just plain BAD. I know Zambrano’s nasty, but you cannot swing at his pitch. Some of the pitches Cameron and Branyan swung at never began as strikes.

Now, look at what else the Cubs have been doing…jumping on the first pitch on the outer half. They took a lot of pitches in the first three innings, and after one time through the order, started to jump on pitches. Ramirez started the 4th by doing so, and Soto began the 5th. It doesn’t seem like much, but it’s what the Cubs have been doing all year. It’s why they lead the NL in runs. It’s why they lead the NL in OBP. They’re professional hitters.

I’m not saying the Brewers hitters are not, but they just haven't had professional at bats lately. Is it pressure? Is it the fact that they’re young? Is this why they swooned last year? I don’t know; I’m just throwing out some ideas. It was similar to how the Cubs were hitting the last two weeks, and people started wondering if the 100 years was getting to them.

(Aside: Carlos Zambrano is “clinically insane.” Yes, I said it. I mean, why do you have to jump around every pitch?! Why do you have to snap your bat over your leg?! Let’s see if it has any ill effects.)

(Aside 2: One of my most hated baseball players ever hit a 2 run homer after Dustin Pedroia broke up the no hitter for John Lackey. Kurish, you got Tex, you can’t get that and a no hitter in one day!)

In the 6th, the Cubs have exploded for seven straight hits, and in Dusty Baker fashion, nobody has gone to the mound to talk to Sheets. Not Maddux, not Yost, not any of the players. Good note, Bob. Again, something about the Crew seems as if they’re not all ready to take this thing to the next level. It just seems like they’re putting a ton of pressure on themselves.

There’s a great stat the Cubs keep track of on WGN: Innings with 5+ runs scored. At one point, I know they had more than double than any other team in the league. They’ve gotten back to that, and it’s nice to see, especially on the road.

Rickie Weeks looked terrible in the first two games, time to send him down, get his confidence back before September.

Ok, so there were no ill effects from Zambrano snapping his bat over his knee. He pitched VERY well, kind of like how he did on March 31st. Good to see him be that ace, and I like that he’s pitching to contact more than before. It’s keeping his pitch count down.

It’s really nice to see Kosuke and Aramis have the kind of games they had. Sure, Kosuke’s triple was aided by Braun’s dive, but he hit the ball well. Aramis ripped three doubles, and it’s good to see him hammering the ball. Earlier in the year, two things were always present for the Cubs: Kosuke’s patience and Ramirez’ production. It’s good to see the team firing on all cylinders.

Finally, there’s not much to complain about from a Cubs perspective, but Lou showed why he cannot manage his pen. Why is Samardzija in the game in the 9th?! Ok, I realize he’s young, only thrown 5 innings, needs some experience, etc. But, if he’s going to be part of the 7th/8th/9th group, then he shouldn’t be pitching. Throw in Eyre, who’s rotting in the pen since being activated. Throw in Cotts, who hasn’t seen much action lately. Throw Mike Fontenot for all I care before you throw Samardzija. Now, do you risk throwing him on back to back days if needed? It’s not as if Samardzija needed any work, he threw two on Sunday.

Lineup I want to see tonight: Soriano, Theriot, Lee, Ramirez, Soto, Fukudome, Cedeno, Johnson – Ronny’s had a hot bat, and DeRo needs a day off. More stuff to come later tonight…

Cubs vs. Brewers Game 1 - Final thoughts

2008-07-29T19:38:00.004-05:00

It's been a week since my profanity laced tirade, but since then, I've been in a much better mood. The Cubs have a two game lead, they got to the reigning AL Cy Young, and Soriano is back.

Last night's game was really fun to watch. It had all the makings of an October game besides the fact that Len Casper and Bob Brenly did the broadcast rather than Buck and McCarver. Fans were standing during most of the game, and from what I could tell, the number of Cubs and Brewers fans were even.

It was really good to see the Cubs jump out to an early lead. Didn't it seem like we were always losing during the rut after the ASB?? We never blew a big lead (lost a few one run games) but never seemed to be ahead early. Now, with Sori at the top, it seems as if we're getting the offense moving right away. I think it really helps pitchers relax. It's a cliche, but I seriously believe that a pitcher relaxes when they have the lead. And that's maybe what the Cubs needed.

It's also good to see Soriano moving very well again. His timing is back, and he's starting to get red hot. Why throw him anything low right now?

Finally, I want to talk about Reed Johnson. Do you now see how starved we are in this city for a "gamer?" Absolutely ridiculous, driving to work today, the play of the game was Johnson's slide. Are you serious?! The slide?! It made no difference how hard Johnson went in, because he didn't even touch Weeks til after, and therefore, didn't affect his throw.

But, what's more ridiculous is the fact that we're applauding someone going hard into second. If I had a dollar for everytime I went in hard at second base, I'd make as much money as Reed Johnson! We're really celebrating a slide?! So let the cliches continue with Reed...does what it takes to win games, doesn't show up in the box score, blah blah blah. How about Derrek Lee's big hits? And then I really heard it, on 670 The Score, they said D-Lee isn't getting criticized because he's black. I don't know who said it, but it really upset me. Race is NOT why he's grounded into 21 double plays, and I'm sure as hell going to criticize him for that. But I also will give the man his props, and his 3 HITS deserved props, but Reed Johnson gets it for getting forced out. What really won't show up in the box score is how Johnson couldn't advance Soriano with nobody out in the first inning last night. He pops up. You're a 2 hitter, Reed. Do your job.

On to tonight's game, there will be a post about game two. I'm working on it as we speak.

Mid Season Report - Pitchers

2008-07-13T12:39:00.003-05:00

Continuing the Mid Season Report, we turn to the pitchers of the 2008 Chicago Cubs. The Cubs just got a very big boost by dealing for Rich Harden, so giving him a grade would be unfair. But, he did fire 5.1 IP, 5 H, 10 K without giving up a run. I will not take the time to give Sean Gallagher a grade, but he would have received a B-. I wish him all the best of luck, with Murton, in Oakland.

Finally, when we get back from the All-Star game, let's hope Lou gets his head out of his ass. Honestly, we need him to stop pitching guys for 2/3 of an inning! Double switch if you need...wait, you can't because you're carrying 13 pitchers. Hopefully today is the last time we see that for the rest of the year.

SP - Carlos Zambrano - It's been a different year for Carlos, his sixth full season in the majors. Carlos just recently came off of the DL, his first trip on the DL in his career. The time off seems to have done him some good, as he's thrown brilliantly in his last two starts. Carlos has really cut down on the walks, and I think that's due to his willingness to pitch to contact this year. His ERA is down a whole run, and his K's are actually right around his career average. Let's hope this continues. Also, he hasn't been as big of a head case. He's seemed to have calmed down a little, and let's credit Geo Soto, Hank White and Larry Rothschild for this change. Hopefully, as the season goes on, he keeps his emotions in check. Final grade: A-

SP - Ted Lilly - I'm going to use this space to rip on Ted Lilly. Why? Because the guy we thought had no personality showed about a year's worth of personality in one start in October. That was the LAST place I wanted him to show emotion. I know Ted's a bulldog, and he fights even when he doesn't have his stuff. But let's face it, he never has his "stuff" anymore. His "stuff" is hitting Wrigleyville houses. His "stuff" is lasting 2.2 innings vs. the Reds. Along with his stuff not being as sharp, he's also missing terribly with some pitches. If I had a dollar for every time Ted Lilly threw a strike on an 0-2 pitch, I could buy all three authentic Ted Lilly jerseys. And then he nearly killed a kid in the stands. And he gets the most run support on the team. Ted needs to get it turned around...and I don't like that we still owe him about 20 million dollars. On the bright side, we could have signed Barry Zito. Final grade: C-

SP - Ryan Dempster - What a season this guy is having. When talking to my buddy Mike Kedzie, we both said that he got the spot in the rotation over Lieber because Demp worked so hard to get back to a starting pitcher. We also thought because Lieber said he would take a spot in the pen, that he was the logical choice to throw out there. But, Demp has proved EVERYONE wrong. Nobody saw a perfect 10-0 record at home. Nobody knew he had 3 pitches. But, all the hard work he put in has paid off. Good for Demp, and hopefully it keeps it going. The one concern I do have is that he hasn't pitched over 100 innings since his arm was surgically repaired. So let's hope he can continue into October. Also, let's hope that he can get some run support on the road, and get some wins. If he can, he's got a shot for 20 wins. Final grade: A

SP - Jason Marquis - Jason, you've been great, and then you've been horrible. We're looking for some consistancy, but we'll take what you give us. The ERA is now down to 4.44 and he's looked a lot better in his last two starts, posting a 1.29 ERA. He may be on the block, and you'd think that with only 11.5 million left on his deal, he'd be valuable. The lack of starting pitchers on the market makes him a good option if we can't squeeze him into the rotation. But let's face it, this isn't going to last. He doesn't trust his stuff, he doesn't get guys out consistently enough, and he doesn't listen to any coach. He's a stubborn Long Island-er, and it's his way or the highway. I hope they can send him on the highway... Final grade: C

SP - Sean Marshall - Sean has done nothing wrong in his big league career, but still finds himself battling for a spot on this team. He's 9-10 with a 3.88 ERA in his last 130 innings. Why not let him go out there every 5th day? Does Lou trust him enough? Imagine the damage he could do with this run support. He threw a gutsy 6 innings vs. St. Louis, and got a W, in a game we definitely needed. Then, his game yesterday made me fall in love with him. (I'm looking for someone now that Murt and Gally are gone). He has the confidence, he has the stuff, let all 6'5'' of him help take home a Cubs World Series. Final grade: B-

RP - Kerry Wood - Jay Marriotti, if only you could go back 3 months and re-write that article you wrote about Kerry Wood. You ripped him, said that Marmol should close, and Kerry was going to be done by...tomorrow. Dan Plesac said it best, what if Marmol would have given up 3 runs that game vs. Milwaukee? Kerry's been great, although he has blown a few saves. He has the closer mentality, and is one of the best closers thus far. His stuff is definitely there, and his slider is one of the best in the league. It's great to see him get the All-Star nod, but a shame that his blister is acting up. By the way, although he's hit 5 guys and walked 13, he's had no wild pitches. He's really been an the team MVP. Final grade: A

RP - Carlos Marmol - Carlos is going to get an incomplete. I don't think his recent struggles are anything physical; I think it's mainly mental. He's an All-Star, because the players voted him in as one of the nastiest guys in baseball. They're right, he is, when his head's there. I wouldn't have minded to see him get some time off, but now he may pitch in the All-Star game...! Hell, I was even calling for a trip to the minors. Maybe this gives him some confidence, and can help him turn it around. Final grade: INC

RP - Mike Wuertz - "Well, it could be Wuertz." Yep, it could be, considering he didn't have his stuff for the first 3 months of the season. His slider has never really been sharp, and he's kind of been the long guy for the majority of this season. He cannot really be counted on for the rest of the season, and we'll see what they do with him. I was surprsied he had an option, and maybe they could package him with some other AAAA players on this team and get a key piece for this run. Final grade: D

RP - Bob Howry - I love the fact that Bob throws a change all the time. I have his love for changeups. Also, I think he's a guy that will be counted on, and he'll live up to the task. He's looked a lot better since his abysmal April (he has a shitty April every year). Hopefully he can continue dotting his gas on the corner and become our 8th inning guy again. I have faith in Bob, hopefully Lou can figure out how to use his pen again, and not throw Bob in blowouts. He needs to find his strikeout pitch, and start putting hitters away again. Once that happens, we'll have that great bullpen back. Final grade: B-

RP - Neal Cotts/Scott Eyre - Cotts finally figured out that he can actually help this team. He pitched really well in Iowa, got to the big leagues, and pitched near his 2005 form. He's going to be counted on as the number one lefty for a while. He's been able to spot his slider, fastball and gotten both lefties and righties out.

Eyre had a hell of a streak going. He hadn't given up a run since August of last year, a streak I didn't know anything about. He can really be effective when he doesn't walk anyone, so let's hope he keeps guys off base. Final grade (for both): B

RP - Jon Lieber - Lieber is in the doghouse, isn't trusted and gives up a ton of home runs. He's a prime candidate to be DFA'd come July 17th. Lieber cost us 1.5 million, and to get the 3 or 4 wins he really helped us win, it was worth it. He pitched long relief a ton of games, and could probably pitch 25 innings in a week if needed. Those innings just wouldn't be very good...especially if we we're playing the Reds. I applaud Lieber for staying quiet, not messing up the chemistry of this team. But I feel bad that he couldn't be used more effectively. He's had a wonderful career, it's a shame it has had to end this way. Final grade: C

Others: Kevin Hart, Jose Ascanio, Carmen Pignatiello, Chad Fox, and Rich Hill cannot really help the Cubs this year, but maybe in the future. Especially the first 3. Hopefully, Hill can get his head on straight now that he's gotten rid of the "tilt." He's thrown 9 straight innings without walking a batter in Mesa...

Let's not forget about Chad Gaudin, who joins the many pitchers in the bullpen that has a fastball with movement and a sharp slider. He gets an INC, too, but he's going to be the 7th inning guy before the year is over.

Mid Season Report – Starting Lineup

2008-07-13T00:49:00.002-05:00

So how are the Cubs doing individually? As we reach the All-Star break, I’ll be posting a “mid season report.” It gives us a chance to look at everyone and break down their season, statistically and otherwise. First, we begin with the starting lineup. Let me know what you guys think. Hopefully, I’ll have the pitchers up before game time on Sunday.

C – Geovany Soto – When I look at Geo, I get chills thinking about how good he will be. But let’s not have that overshadow how good he is now. He has been the best catcher the Cubs have had since Jody Davis. He’s hitting .287/.368/.526, with 16 home runs and 24 doubles. The guy is a hit machine, and it’s really nice to have down in the order. Also, the way he’s handled the pitching staff has been so key. The biggest thing that everyone alludes to is how he jumped out of the catcher’s crouch when Big Z was hurt. The pitchers rave about him, and there were many times when he went out to talk to Rich Harden, and got Rich to smile. There’s one time where Geo has struggled this year, and that’s been with RISP. He’s hitting .247, but with 2 outs and RISP, he’s hitting a crummy .159. I keep in mind that he is a rookie, and those stats will improve over time. Final grade: A-

1B – Derrek Lee – I don’t care if he hits into 45 double plays, smashing Jim Rice’s record. I don’t care if he strikes out more than he ever has. This man is the most underappreciated Cub of 2008. I can’t believe the grief he’s been given! Without him, the lineup suffers beyond belief (think 2006). Without him, Aramis Ramirez isn’t nearly as good. And without his defense, the team ERA jumps half a run. Too many people have gotten on Derrek in recent weeks, and it’s really irritating. Every major statistic is up over his career high, and he’s heating back up. He’s always been a streaky hitter in his career, and will continue to be, so fans need to relax a little. And let’s not underestimate the value of him as a team leader. But Derrek, please stop rolling over so many pitches! Final Grade: B+

2B – Mark DeRosa – Team MVP possibly last year, and this year his stats are even better. When’s the last time we had a 2B that was projected to hit at least .290, 20 hrs and 90 RBI? Well, I think his name was Ryno…just saying. No, he’s not Sandberg by any means, but he’s having an All-Star caliber season. He’s playing all over the field, brings all of his gloves to the park, and does his work. He get’s extra credit for not getting too caught up in the Brian Roberts talk. And extra credit for his OBP. His defense has been unspectacular at times, but he gets the job done. Let’s hope that he sees the majority of his time at second and that his defense improves. Final grade: A-

SS – Ryan Theriot – I’ll admit, I’ve jumped on the Theriot band wagon. Despite having purchased his shirt about 13 months ago, I never considered myself a big fan. He definitely faded last September, but to his defense, it was his first MLB season. Now, he’s 5th in the NL in hitting, getting on-base at a .400 clip, and scoring a ton of runs. But, his fielding and base running have hurt us at times. He’s been doubled off three times, and is only 13/22 in SB opportunities. His defense has been poor, 2nd worst fielding percentage among NL shortstops. But if he continues to hit, I’ll take the below average defense. Final grade: B-

3B – Aramis Ramirez – Aramis has turned into our “David Ortiz.” When there’s a big moment, you know Aramis is going to come through. He’s had so many clutch hits to mention, but the SF game on Friday and the Cubs/Sox series come to mind right away. His defense is very, very improved. He robbed Jerry Hariston Jr. at least twice in the series against Cincinatti. His range has improved, and he’s not making any friends in the first row behind first base anymore. His stats are down, probably because he had his daughter on his mind, but an all-star appearance is definitely deserved. Final grade: B+

LF – Alfonso Soriano – I cannot really give him a grade here. I would give him an A, if he hadn’t missed 35 games already. He sucks in the field, but was getting a lot better. He was beginning to run more. He was absolutely KILLING the ball before he broke his hand. But he’s on the DL for something he couldn’t control. There’s no reason to believe he won’t be continuing his dominance once August comes. Wait til that lineup is rolled out there…! Final grade: Incomplete

CF – Jim Edmonds – Jimmy is everything you want in a veteran. It’s really weird to see him playing center for a team that may win the World Series, in blue! But, he’s been good at the plate this year, after that two week trial period. The power is still there, the bat speed is still there. But I still believe he’s close to breaking down. His foot’s been bothering him for a month now, and he’s had that history in the past. His defense has really slipped, and he can’t play as shallow anymore. But he’s what we need out there. Takes charge in the outfield and is a big left handed bat when healthy. Not a bad pickup! Final grade: C+

RF – Kosuke Fukudome- I’m going to be hard on the Japanese import. He started out with a bang, literally. He went 3-3 in his first game vs. Milwaukee, and got off to a really hot April. Now, the league has seemed to figure out that anything that breaks away from him won’t get hit very hard. So Kosuke, the ball is in your court. Maybe he’s tired. Whatever it is, you need to get right…soon. We traded away our OF depth, and there’s 13 million reasons we’re counting on you. To give him some credit, he’s great in right field, and really has good fundamentals. I love how we can count on him to lay the bunt down. Final grade: B

Overall lineup: B+ - They do not rely on the home run ball as much as they did in the past. A lot of clutch 2 out hitting. And a lot of comeback wins, something this team never did in the past. One thing I wish we had is a little more speed. Everyone's below average, or average for their position (with the exception of Theriot and Kosuke). But, how can you complain about this lineup. I love the approach that they've taken, and maybe that's Kosuke's doing. Patience is a virtue, and is the reason why the Cubs are 20 over .500 at the time of this post.

Hey, Relax Guy

2008-07-07T13:54:00.002-05:00

So Carsten Charles (C.C.) Sabathia is now officially a member of the Milwaukee Brewers. First, I'd like to say that I LOVE the deal for the Brewers, and it seems as if the haul was good for C.C. but not great. I think it's a move that improves this team about 3-4 wins, and that could be the difference in the NL Central.

But it won't be.

To all Cubs fans, just relax, take a deep breath and look at what WE'RE doing. We we're one out away from a sweep, ON THE ROAD, in St. Louis (the team that's in second place). Sean Marshall threw 6 great innings, the offense was there when needed, and Marmol even had a good inning. Now, we come home for Cincinatti and host San Francisco before the ASB.

So don't freak out, Cubs fans. C.C. plays one out of every five days. From here on out, he plays in 16 games. It's not as if they acquired the reigning MVP, who would play EVERY DAY. But guess what? The Brew Crew still has trouble closing out games. They still have a weak pen. They still CANNOT play any defense. Then, their leadoff hitter gets on base at a .310 clip. Honestly, this team has more weaknesses then you'd think if you break it down. C.C. can't help fix all of those.

All of this is going on and I love it, because now we're talking about Rich Harden with Billy Beane. Maybe the rumors won't swirl as much, or things won't blow up since C.C. was just dealt.

The Brewers are now a scary contender IF they make the playoffs. In a short series, that's a pretty good rotation. They won't hit like this forever, so we'll see if they can find some consistency.

So relax Cubs fans, it's not a curse, it's nothing more than just a little blip on the radar. Let's see how things are played out on the field.

Slumps galore

2008-07-03T22:47:00.003-05:00

From my fantasy team, to the Cubs and Carlos Marmol, this has been a week of slumps. My fantasy team has dropped 6.5 points in a week. My Cubs have lost 7 of their last 10. Carlos Marmol is the king of giving up the 3 run bomb.

Now, I'm not going to analyze my fantasy team struggles (3 players went on the DL), but I will analyze Marmol's struggles.

Everyone thinks they have the reason why Carlos has been getting bombed lately. Answers have ranged from his reliance on his slider to stress on his arm.

It's not because he's been throwing anything more or less, in actuality, he's thrown the slider LESS this year than last year. Fangraphs.com, thank you.

Let's break it down. For one, he's not getting hit around like people say. 4.58 H/9 this year anad 6.02 H/9 last year. His WHIP is down from 1.10 to 0.92. His BABIP is down from .276 to .192 So what's the deal?

Just because he's giving up less walks and hits doesn't mean his control is better. His control is actually down, because he's been faced with hitters counts constantly. That's when the he's allowing the home runs. And he's giving up 7% more flyballs this year than last year.

Any major league hitter can sit dead red on a fastball and hit it out. Marmol has been shown that he can't miss his spots anymore and get away with it. He's lost his most important pitch: strike one. If he falls behind early, the hitter has a HUGE advantage, and it's finally starting to catch up to him.

The stuff is still nasty, the location isn't. With 2 strikes, opponents are hitting .073 against him. There's no doubt that he can put away hitters once he gets to 2 strikes. But lately, he hasn't been getting to 2 strikes.

So, what to do with Carlos now? I think you have to pitch him in non pressure situations. I'd give him this weekend off in St. Louis. Let him regroup mentally, and work on some things on the side. His health and stuff are good, just his location is shaky. We need him in the second half, and hopefully we get the real Carlos Marmol back.

Speaking of this weekend, it's perfect time to take 2 of 3, get to a 4.5 game lead, and give ourselves a little more breathing room. It starts with Big Z tomorrow night, and I have a feeling he's going to come out guns blazin' tomorrow. He's had some rest, and he's itching to get back out there. We need him to throw a great game.

Also, it's the first game for Jim Edmonds in a Cubs uniform in Busch Stadium. I'm interested to hear the reaction that he receives. I hope it's cheers, because Jimmy did a lot of good things for that team, and killed us so often.

Finally, thank God the Brewers have a back end of the pen. It's going to KILL them going into August and September. It's either going to cost them a lot of prospects or it's going to cost them a chance at the playoffs.

Are you serious?

2008-06-21T13:04:00.005-05:00

To all associated with the White Sox,

Just shut up.

Everyone.

Kenny Williams, Orlando Cabrera, Ozzie Guillen, Hawk and DJ. Just stop.

I made the mistake of listening to part of the game on Comcast Sports Net to hear what the Sox announcers were like. It's the 4th inning, 7 innings after the "controversial home run" and the replays are STILL SHOWING.

Get over it, seriously. There's nothing you can do to change it, Hawk. DJ, stop trying to use your replay to find something behind the foul pole.

I'm honestly surprised that "OC" didn't call the press box during that at-bat.

Kenny Williams would get the award for stupidest thing upper management has said this week, but Hank Steinbrenner beat him handily. Still, why talk about the anniversary? Thanks, we didn't know it was 100 years, Kenneth. And congrats to you, for being the 4th most liked team in the city. Win 10 world championships before the Cubs win one, and guess what? Nobody will like you. Focus your attention on something else.

This whole series just pisses me off. Honestly, Cub fans just don't care as much about this series as Sox fans. Never. Not this year, not last year, not any of the 11 years.

Ozzie hates Wrigley. Good, we hate you. You are a piss poor manager that was taken to the World Series when all of your players had a career year. All you do is bitch about how much you hate Cubs fans, the Cubs organization. And then you say you have nothing against either?! Bull shit! When you rip on Wrigley, you're ripping into the organization. Why do you have to bitch about the Cubs when you're on the road, when the Cubs are thousands of miles away? Again, nobody likes you, and the city will never like you as much as the Cubs manager. Fact.

Hey, whine about balls and strikes, EVERY GAME, Ozzie. When you throw 2 pitches in the dirt, and throw one on the outside corner and don't get the call... you probably don't deserve it.

So Kenny and Ozzie, do you really want to "fire up" the best team in the MLB right now? I don't think that's a very good idea...ask Aramis Ramirez.

EDIT: Well, you've done it, Sox brass. You've pissed off the Cubs and they swept you back to 35th street. Anyways, to show that I'm not the only one that sees this shit, here's an actual professional...

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/couch/1018425,CST-SPT-greg22.article

Nice work, Greg.

Til next time...

Most Overrated Cub of 2008: Reed Johnson

2008-06-17T22:09:00.003-05:00

Every team has their grinder, their small ball guy, their fan favorite. This year, it's Reed Johnson for the Cubs. Reed made a spectacular catch in Washington, got off to a hot start, and played himself into the rotation.

He does all of the little things, bunts, hits behind runners, and is a great teammate. He's your typical "grinder." But he's not a 400 at-bat per year outfieder. He's a great 4th or 5th, but a terrible 3rd.

Let's look at this statistically: .267 .342 .381 87. What's the 87? His OPS+, it's below average (100). He's driven in a good amount of runs for a leadoff/7th or 8th hitter. His stats show exactly what he is, and that's just average.

Now, tonight he made a lot of bad decisions. One, in the 7th, down a run, he was caught trying to steal third base. Theriot (leading the team in batting) was at the plate with a 3-1 count. Then, Derrek Lee would follow. Instead, Reed makes the ultimate base running error and gets thrown out at 3rd for the final out of the inning.

Then in the ninth - I realize this is more my opinion than anything - he comes up to the plate and bunts.

Bunts.

Ok, good idea if you're a) fast b) left handed c) playing on GRASS. Reed isn't fast, nor left handed, and I'm pretty sure that shit on the field in Tampa is definitely not grass. Evan (God) makes a good play, but the bad throw made the play look closer than it really is.

Now, with Percival being all over the place, why not try and see a few pitches? Take a strike, or even just to see if he and Navarro got crossed up again and caused a passed ball.

I really didn't like the decision to bunt given those three things from before.

Reed's been labeled a hero, and he's done enough for the Cubs to be in first place and 19 games over .500. But don't give him any more credit. I don't want to hear about him being the "hero" when he gets hit by a pitch in the 11th inning of a game. That's luck. I don't want to hear about how outstanding he is in the field...he really isn't outside of that one play. And I hate the term "grinder" with an absolute passion. Back in the day there were no "grinders." Everyone was a grinder. But when you add in egos, hustling becomes an honorable deed, when it's something you're supposed to do.

On the Northside of Chicago we may see 7 or 8 All-Stars. Reed Johnson is definitely not one of them, but he's treated as one of them. How instrumental has he been? Not very. He's been consistently average.

Let's not make him out to be more than he is.

Following in Daddy's Footsteps

2008-06-17T21:12:00.002-05:00

I usually have a problem with most sports announcers, but I'm breaking away from that to rip into Hank Steinbrenner. He said the most idiotic thing I've ever heard in baseball from an owner.

And not far behind is Mike Mussina.

Yankees ace Chien-Ming Wang is expected to be sidelined until at least September after injuring his foot running the bases, prompting club co-chairman Hank Steinbrenner to chastise the National League for playing without a designated hitter.

This is what he said to the "children" of the National League.

"My only message is simple. The National League needs to join the 21st century," Steinbrenner said in Tampa, Fla. "They need to grow up and join the 21st century."

Join the 21st century? As if the DH is "technology." What does the 21st century have to do with anything?! Grow up? Really, Hank? Really?

"Am I [mad] about it? Yes," Steinbrenner added. "I've got my pitchers running the bases, and one of them gets hurt. He's going to be out. I don't like that, and it's about time they address it. That was a rule from the 1800s."

And it's a rule from 2008, Hank. Next time, have your pitcher strike out. Or take pitches.

Hank, you're totally wrong here. Now he's decided to awake the DH dragon from his slumber.

The DH is a horrible rule. It's like Shaq's free throws being taken by Steve Nash. You take all of the "athleticism" out of the position. Now they just throw? I'm a fan of seeing pitchers play the game, not just pitch. I'm not a fan of seeing some ogre hit in the cages for 3 hours and hit for 5 minutes. Play the field, be a baseball player.

People always say that in the AL the pitcher doesn't get a break. Well, pitching in the AL has it's advantages, too. One, you can pitch inside. If you hit a guy in the NL, you're going to have to hit later in the game. So you really can't come inside with anything hard unless you want one in your earhole. In the AL, you could hit 2 or 3 guys, and you won't have to pay for it in the box. Maybe one of your teammates gets it in the backside, but you personally will not.

Also, without having to hit ever, you're given an extra opportunity to pitch out of trouble. It's a quicker hook in the NL. Andy Pettite threw 6.6 innings, and gave up 10 runs. That never happens in the NL.

It feels good to have that off my chest. But I'm not done with this Hank fiasco.

"We don't hit, we don't run the bases," Mussina said. "You get four or five at-bats a year at most, and if you happen to get on base once or twice, you never know. We run in straight lines most of the time. Turning corners, you just don't do that."

So you're not an athlete, Mike? This is just pathetic. Turning corners? I know grandparents that run around corners. Give me a break.

Burning for Burnett

2008-06-15T21:24:00.002-05:00

Add another name to the list of starting pitchers who the Cubs are interested in - A.J. Burnett. The intriguing thing about this name is that he wants to come here, too.

This is a very interesting story, one worth following on marcotalks.blogspot.com. Acquiring a starting pitcher is necessary for the Cubs to win a World Series this year. Not just a starting pitcher, but one with good stuff. A.J. brings that, and he's made it no secret that he wants to come to Chicago.

The fact that he's vocal about wanting to play for a contender/the Cubs is reason alone to go get him. His stats definitely do not jump out at you, though. He missed almost all of 2003 due to injuries, and hasn't made 30 starts since 2005. He has a career record of 75-72 and an ERA of 3.84. His career high in wins is 12 (2002, 2005). The stats that do jump out at you are his walks, which he has 42 in 86.6 innings this year. His walk rate wasn't that high in 2007, so this may be Burnett showing complacency. The stuff has always been there, as have been the strikeouts. He's been a streaky pitcher, but when he's on and FOCUSED, he's as nasty as they come. Add a pennant race, and he could do great for the Cubs in 2008. At the very least, he'll be better than Marquis and Gallagher.

The Cubs could use a right-hander with nasty stuff in the rotation. He may catch lightning in a bottle, turn into unhittable, and help lead the Cubs to the World Series. The Cubs have minor leaguers that they can move, and some look like a good match for the Jays. He's going to also cost less than Rich Harden, but probably more than Gil Meche.

The Blue Jays are about to fall out of the race, but as for next year, they're not far away. They definitely need some middle infield help, as well as outfield (left field primarily) and pitching help. Their minor league system is weak and without any players ready to contribute soon.

So what would it take to get Burnett? A.J. has 30 million left on his deal, but he can choose to opt out after this year. No matter where he ends up to end this year, he's going to void the final years on his deal, and become a free agent. Why? Because outside of Sabathia, he's going to be the top available free agent pitcher. Why not get an extra year or two at 13 million? It's similar to the Aramis Ramirez contract. So the Cubs and Jays have to balance a) his remaining salary for this season and possibly beyond and b) are the prospects better than what they could get when Burnett opts out? I would think Veal, Cedeno and another minor leaguer would do it. I don't think they'd have any interest in Pie or Colvin, but they could be added in as well.

So say he opts out, the Cubs have the chance to give him a deal. They also have to offer him arbitration, which he'll most definitely decline. Therefore, the Cubs will get a sandwich pick, plus a draft pick of a team in the first round (or another sandwich pick if the team that signs Burnett is in the top 15 picks). It's worth it, even in the long run.

As this story continues, I'll be tracking the rumors and hoping that before August, we'll see AJ Burnett in a Cubs uniform.

I never thought it would come to this...

2008-06-12T00:36:00.002-05:00

Sorry for the long delay, those of you that read this fabulous site. Today is one of the most important days in the 2008 season for the Chicago Cubs. Soriano has gone down, again, this time for 6-8 weeks with a broken finger/hand. Lou said it won't be just one guy coming up from AAA, it'll probably be two. (I assume Kevin Hart will get sent down)

So most of you would think I'm excited, as this gives everyone's favorite redhead, Matt Murton, a chance to come up and shine for the Cubs. I mean, this is why they keep Murton, right? He can't play any worse in the field than Sori, and has a career .295 batting average, he's gotta be perfect, right?

Wrong.

(Gasp!)

I have a little tear in my eye when I say that I don't a) expect Murton up and b) don't want him up. If Murt gets called up, he becomes my favorite player on the team again, and I will definitely cheer him on like always. I will defend him even though I know I'm sometimes going into a losing situation. I will always say that he deserves/deserved 500 at-bats. But this year is different... we need a couple things more than Murton.

Like a left handed bat. This gives us the opportunity to insert another lefty. Our options are Mike Fontenot at 2nd, DeRosa in left. Also, we could/should call up Hoffpauir, pray nothing gets hit to him, and hit him 5th (Kosuke 2nd). Or, maybe my favorite option, put Eric Patterson in left, DeRo at 2nd. We have options, but none of them really call for another right handed, high OBP guy. This gives Lou an advantage; when will the other team be forced to pitch their lefty specialist? Options are good, and in the next 6 weeks, Lou will find one that fits.

Looking at the upcoming schedule, we go to Toronto and Tampa after this brief series with the Braves. Huddy (my guy) is pitching tomorrow for ATL. He throws a nasty sinker and splitter, keeps the ball down, enduces a lot of ground balls. Do you really want to insert another righty who will end up swinging over the top of it? I really can't stand to see a ground ball hitter (Murton) hit even weaker ground balls when thrown a few inside sinkers. I love you Murt, but we cannot have this when we're 18 games over .500 and looking to separate from the Cards and the rest of the NL Central. Throw that lefty in there (we all know how I feel about left handed hitters vs. sinkerballers) and get some better at-bats. Tomorrow's lineup will probably call for Fontenot at 2nd, DeRo in left. Why? Because I highly doubt Hoffpauir's played any OF at Wrigley, so throwing him in there is a BAD idea. Secondly, Eric Patterson will probably show up late. Third, because Lou double switches Fontenot in anyway, so he'd be the best option. Tomorrow, I'm going with Mike Fontenot as my pick to click, and my leadoff hitter. Then, looking ahead to Toronto and Tampa, you're going to need a DH, and Hoffpauir is your best DH type on the team. With Eric Patterson, you get a leadoff hitter with speed, and who's swinging the bat very well (.333 .368 .525 with a 10/10 steal rate). Could this be the day that Eric Patterson becomes what we all hoped of him?

Back to Murton, though...he's hitting the best you can at any level .311 (those of you that know me will know what I mean). But he's a lackluster .143 in June and hasn't gotten a hit in four games. Would they really send up a guy who's not performing that well recently? I don't think so, especially the way Patterson and Hoffpauir have been going. Murton's slugging percentage is down, down from the usual numbers. The OPS is high due to his high OBP, but he really needs to start elevating the ball to get better numbers, and a better shot at the major league level.

So to all of you who know how much I love Murt, I'm sure you're shocked. I just can't really see him being the right call up as of right now. But you sometimes have to put personal preferences aside for the sake of winning one world championship in 100 years. I hope he proves me wrong, gets called up, hits the GW HR in the World Series. I haven't given up on him, not even close. It's just right now, you HAVE to make the right move. Murton's not part of it now, but he's got at least 8 weeks to prove that he's a .280/.350/.450 guy in the majors. Or, for your sake Murt, get some trade value, so we can save you, send you to Colorado for Fuentes, and break the record for HRs in a single season or something. Hope is sometimes all we have.

Most underrated part of 2008 Cubs: The Bullpen

2008-06-01T01:22:00.000-05:00

The old saying in basketball is that defense wins championships. The same works for bullpen’s in baseball. Sure, they don’t need to be outstanding, but you need to be damn good to win championships.

And the Cubs have the best pen in the NL, as far as I’m concerned.

Since there’s nowhere on the internet that shows bullpen ERA’s, I had to calculate it myself. I’ve found that the Cubs bullpen ERA is 3.35 so far this year. That’s pretty damn good. But, if you take out the guys that are no longer on the team, you come up with a 3.04 ERA. That’s the combined ERA’s of Wood, Marmol, Howry, Eyre, Wuertz, Lieber, Ascanio and Cotts. (Yes I know both are not on the team, but they’re interchangeable, both deserve spots on this team.)

Marmol is an All-Star. Yes, he’s an All-Star. Why not? He has the nastiest stuff in the National League, striking out 52 in 35 innings. If this game counts, I want Carlos Marmol. And I guarantee you he’s on the team because the NL manager is Clint Hurdle. Other than Scott Podsednik, nobody touched him in Colorado. 14.9 K/9 Ratio. 4.33 K/BB ratio. But he’s not the only one.

Bob Howry’s March/April Stats
13.2 IP, 8.10 ERA, 12 ER, 21 H, 3 HR

Bob Howry’s May Stats
14.2 IP, 1.84 ERA, 3 ER, 16 H, 2 HR

A tale of two months for Bob Howry, and he’s rounding back into form. Howry’s last three seasons have yielded ERA’s of 2.47, 3.17, 3.47 – so it’s not a matter of if with Howry, it’s just when. His last three years ERA in August and September are 1.89. Howry’s a vet that pitches when it counts.

Kerry Wood is a very interesting story. You look at his stats and you see 2-1 3.02 ERA, 13/17 SV, 32K in 29 2/3. That’s not bad, and looking at how closers have been this year, this is a good season.

But when you examine the stats a little closer, you see that in Wood’s successful saves, he’s not allowed a run. He has 14 K and 3 BB. He’s not terrible in non-save situations, as he’s given up 4 runs in 12 innings (3.00 ERA). Keep in mind that one game was on Opening Day, when he gave up 3 runs. So other than that game, he has a 0.82 ERA.

This is why ERA is not the greatest stat to look at. A guy could throw 35 scoreless innings, but gives up 5 in a one inning, and his ERA balloons. It really doesn’t measure relief pitchers accurately. This is the case in showing Wood’s effectiveness. Although 3.02 isn’t bad, he’s been better than that.

Michael Wuertz has been such an important part of this team in the past few years. He led the league last year by letting the least amount of inherited runners score. (Second was Marmol, by the way.) Wuertz has an ERA+ of 142, 100 is average, and 142 is pretty good. ERA+ is park adjusted, so it measures how good he’s played and thrown in the park he’s pitched in. His WHIP has fallen to 1.19, down from 1.38 of last year. He’s been great in the 5th, and 6th innings, when he comes in for an ineffective starter, and puts out the fire more times than not.

Jon Lieber has been an unsung hero, as his rubber arm has given us more than a couple victories. He’s been great in long relief, coming in when the starter has struggled, or given great innings in extra inning games. His one start of the year was bad, so his home runs are through the roof. Again, if you take out that one start, and look at just his bullpen ERA, he’s at 2.19.

Scott Eyre and Neal Cotts will be fine if they can continue to throw strikes. Neal did this in AAA, fanning 33 in 27 innings. He only has walked 10 in AAA. But the key is Stevie Ire, who has been good this year. 4 and 1/3 innings so far and he hasn’t allowed a run. If he can keep his ERA under 2.5 this year, which is definitely possible by only pitching to lefties, he’s going to be another big reason why the Cubs reach the postseason.

And last but not least is Jose Ascanio, who should be playing in the big leagues. He definitely has a plus change, to go with his 94 MPH heat. He definitely has a good future in this organization. In 5 innings, Ascanio has given up only one run on four hits. He’ll definitely be back if needed, and will provide good results in the pen.

Find a team top to bottom that’s as good as this team’s pen. I dare you. There may be two All-Stars from this pen, along with everyone having under a 4.00 ERA when the year is over. And if the Cubs want to win a World Series, they just have to find a way to preserve this pen.

Doesn’t it feel good when you can throw in anyone and feel comfortable that they can hold a lead?

Dear Al,

2008-05-29T18:53:00.004-05:00

I don't like you.

Al, the man that runs bleedcubbieblue.com, is a good spirited guy. I called him a moron when he jumped all over Theriot's nuts for being "scrappy", and I call him a moron for the other stupid shit he says on the site.

But here are the two things that really, really pissed me off lately.

1.) "The Cubs don't need a left handed power bat" - Umm... yes they do. I don't think Hendry knew what he was getting with Fukudome, but how can you blame him? Nobody really knew what to expect. After two months, he's worth the money we've paid him. Even though he's tailed off a little bit, I stand by my projection I made in March. He's just not the power hitter that we thought he'd be. Kosuke needs to be hitting in the two-spot or even leadoff.

But there are times when we're going to face a tough right handed pitcher, and face it, lefties fare better, statistically and theoretically. Think about when we face Peavy and Webb (just throwing out two very good right handers who throw heavy sinkers). The right handers have trouble hitting it, where the lefties actually prefer a sinker baller. This is because lefties like the ball down, their natural swing is this way, and that's why most lefties have a "pretty swing."

The numbers do not lie; Webb has a .272 BAA vs. LHB while holding a .209 vs. RHB. Peavy's margin isn't as wide, but still high at .247 vs. .217. I'm not just singaling out those guys, it's just showing that we definitely need to get another lefty bat for this, especially when the road to the World Series goes through Arizona.

IF we make the move to get another left handed bat, the bat would have to be in the outfield, and I don't know that there are a lot of LHB's available that can handle right or center field. Micah Hoffpauir is definitely not the answer, though.

2.) "Why do the Cubs need another starting pitcher?" - Well, because Jason Marquis is in the rotation. He sucks. 4.97 ERA doesn't even begin to tell the story. 5.7 K/9 is a little unfair because he's not a strikeout pitcher. But if you have a 5.7 K/9, a 1.45 K/BB, a 1.64 WHIP and a 12.4 H/9, you're not having a good year. And other than beating Pittsburgh, Marquis doesn't have another win. We need another guy, right handed or left handed.

Let's face it, Marshall, Hart and Rich Hill are not going help this year. I'm holding out hope for Hill, and like Loszach, I was hoping that Rich Hill would take the next step this year. He's taken a step back, big step back, and Lou doesn't trust him, so there's no reason to think he can help out.

This makes me wonder how long Lou will trust Gally. I love Gally, I believe that you can win with him in the rotation, and also develop him as a pitcher. His top comparable has to be Joe Blanton, so why trade for Blanton? Try to make a move to get a #3 pitcher, Demp will show that he's a #4 once that BABIP skyrockets. Could we make the move to get a guy like that? I don't know if many teams like 25-27 year old prospects in AAA that are running out of options...because that's what our farm system holds.

So Al, you're wrong. I'm not always right, I'll admit it (look at my fantasy team for proof of this) but this time, the numbers and theory are against you.

The question becomes can we find the right guy for this team in the rotation and in the outfield? I think we definitely can, but we're going to have to make teams believers of Marshall, Patterson, Murton, Veal, etc. They're all over 24, and have limited potential. Hopefully, we can take on a relatively bigger contract while not giving up too much for that player.

Who do you guys think would be a good fit?

Is Lou Crazy?

2008-05-27T22:53:00.002-05:00

Before I begin, I want to say this... I love Lou. No doubt about it, I think he manages his bullpen very well, I think he deals with the players very well, and he puts the right lineup out there most of the time.

But in the last few days, there have been a few things I've questioned about him...

Let's start in Pittsburgh. We lose a heart breaker in extras, nothing he can do about that...

...Until Sunday. Lou, for whatever reason, has been hesitant to take out Soriano as a defensive replacement. It's easy to move Johnson to left, Edmonds/Pie to center. He hasn't done it, and it's cost us two games so far this year. Soriano is a bad defensive outfielder. Is he hurt? Is he dogging it? Either way, we cannot have him in left after the 8th inning when we're ahead. Nevertheless, Soriano should catch the ball and we should win...right?

Nope. He pitches to Jason Bay in the 10th or 11th (Whatever inning it was) He had a base open, and LaRoche next. This is one of those times where you just don't play the percentages. Bay was killing that weekend, and it's good to see one of the game's good guys return to stardom. But, don't pitch to him!!! Pitch to Adam LaRoche. Please, Lou. There's that saying in sports, "don't let the other team's star beat you." - Come on, Lou.

Finally on Lou, you have to do a better job on picking when to run on 3-2. Seriously. We've had a lot of guys thrown out on that stuff. Some of our best OBP guys are also high strikeout guys, don't cut short an inning. I could probably throw out Aramis Ramirez and Fukudome's struck out 17% of the time. Don't send A-Ram on a 3-2 count. Please!

And does anyone remember Mike Fontenot? I don't. Until tonight, when he started for the first time in 4 weeks. Does anyone remember the last time Fontenot got a hit? How about May 5th. And if you ask some Cubs fans, Fontenot should be at 2nd, with DeRosa on the bench. Good thing that trade wasn't made by the way, DeRosa is playing very well, and so is Ronny (Who has recently joined Murton, Woody, Gallagher and Soto as one of my boys)

Things to look out for: The farm is heating up... after a slow April, May has been a great month for the I-Cubs. Eric Patterson, Matt Murton, Neal Cotts, Kevin Hart are all playing well. Especially Cotts, who's yet to allow a home run this year.

Random Thoughts: 5/27

2008-05-27T17:51:00.002-05:00

Just a few random things that I've seen today...

Jay Bruce has been called up. He is truly something. I picked him up on my fantasy team, hoping for a Braun-esque performance. That's highly doubtful, but I do see Bruce staying in the bigs forever. I wonder how many walks he'll take under Dusty...Dusty wants his players to swing the bat so they don't clog the bases.
Jerry Hairston Jr. - .306/.338/.453 - Who knew?! And he's playing shortstop.
Geovany Soto is running away with ROY in the National League right now... Volquez does not qualify.
Tonsil surgery is not a big deal.
Replay in baseball is needed. Yes, I thought I'd never say it. Just for controversial home run calls (BASED ON WHERE THE BALL HITS THE WALL). It's sad, really. I don't know whether to blame incompetent umpires or just stupid ballpark construction... so I'm going to go with both. The game wouldn't be slowed down that much, and frankly, if it's going to ensure the call is right, I'll wait 5 minutes.
The Cubs need another starting pitcher. Throw out your ideas. Good thing we saved our minor league talent. By the way...Mark DeRosa is hitting .315/.401/.455 - Brian who?!
The Mets would probably be better if Willie Randolph was white...yep.
Clayton Kershaw is ridiculous. I got my picture with him when he was in the Low-A All-Star game last year. 10 months ago, he was pitching in Low-A. He's 20. Will he be as good as Santana?
I can't wait to see Eric Gordon flop in the pros.
Oh yeah, totally forgot, we inked 6'6'' swingman Jeronne Maymon today. Big signing for Marquette. They say he's a 4 in high school, but projects to a 3 in college. I agree with that. He can play 2-4...good work Buzz.
Matt Gamel may be the next big Brewers prospect to come up (LaPorta's blocked for now). He's a 3B, but is going to have to move positions because he has no glove (weird, I haven't heard this before about a Brewers 3B).
Bill Hall has fallen off the face of the earth. He can't hit for shit!
Did the Cubs make the wrong move by passing on Matt Weiters? I said they did last year when we took Josh Vitters. Don't get me wrong, Vitters could still be a very good player, but right now he's hurt and reminds me of Mark Pawelek. Weiters on the other hand is hitting .351/.434/.633 in High-A. Oops?
Who is Brad Eldred? .264 average but .950 OPS in AAA for the White Sox. If anyone thinks he's any good, tell me. He's not, and don't say that he's better than Thome.
Chipper is at .416 - wow.
Jim Edmonds gets a hit in three at bats, and people all of a sudden think there's some life. Doubt it. Get him out. Bring up Murton, seriously.
Finally, I'm really upset the Stanley Cup Finals are like this. Here's hoping for a Sid the Kid comeback to make it a series. Hockey needs it.

The Chicago Bulls are on the clock…

2008-05-21T20:21:00.001-05:00

…And I’ve never been happier as a Bulls fan. Ok, false, I was happier when we swept Miami and old ass Shaq out of the playoffs. I was happier when we had Jordan. But, in the past year of watching this team, I’ve just been waiting for something. We dealt useless Ben Wallace and picked up a lock down defender in Larry Hughes and a 15/10 guy in Drew Gooden. But nothing compares to having the first pick in the draft.

This decision is deeper than just Derrick Rose or Michael Beasley. Say you were Bulls GM John Paxson, think of all of the questions… Who will develop into the better pro? Who fits the Bulls biggest need? Do you take the hometown kid? Do you finally take the low post scorer?
Either way, I’ve been saying since 2005, the Bulls needed a SUPERSTAR to reach the NBA Finals or to even really be considered a contender. Paxson dropped the ball on Kobe, Pau Gasol and Kevin Garnett. Now, through luck, Paxson has his superstar fall in his lap. He finally has his chance to go get a guy that can fill it up.
Here’s why you take Derrick Rose:
· It’s a point guard’s league, and the position has never been more important
· You have enough forwards to get by (Gooden, Tyrus Thomas, Joakim Noah, Andres Nocioni and probably Luol Deng)
· He’s better than Kirk Hinrich (although I love the Captain)

Look at the impact point guards have made in the playoffs – MVP Runner-up Chris Paul, Tony Parker, Deron Williams, Chauncey Billups (in the past as well). They not only just control the game, like point guards used to do, but their ability to get free just opens up the rest of the team. The Bulls have good shooters, don’t let last year’s numbers fool you. Once you add in a good point guard, who can get into the lane, you make everyone around you better. If you examine the Hornets, you’ll see how many players Chris Paul made better; Jannero Pargo, Tyson Chandler, Mo Peterson, Peja Stojakovic and David West. The Bulls have equal or better players at each position, but they’re just missing that point guard. Deng may finally make the jump from pretty good to great, Noc shoots his way into the leaders of NBA 3PT% again, Noah with his great hands could watch his PPG jump by 3 or 4. Also, think of what it would do for Larry Hughes, as Rose will sometimes draw the BEST defender on the other team, leaving Hughes to go against someone that isn’t as good defensively. Hughes can fill it up, and would still be the go to guy on a nightly basis with the Bulls, at least during Rose’s rookie year. Thabo Sefolosha can come in play either guard spot, hit some shots, and play suffocating defense to give the Bulls a three headed monster at the guard spots. The Bulls will go from 3 short guards (Hinrich, Duhon, Gordon) to 3 longer, more talented and more athletic guards that are all 6’6’’ or taller. Boooooooom!

Notice I have left all 3 small guards out of the equation. Why? Because they don’t matter anymore. You cannot keep Hinrich and his salary on as a backup point. It’s not going to work. If Hinrich was consistent, you’d be more inclined to keep him, but not at 8 million a year for the next 3 years. You have to look to move him to a team that’s looking for that veteran, hardnosed point guard. I love Kirk, but there are a lot of teams that could use him, and he’d be better served to play somewhere else.

Chris Duhon is the ultimate sell out. Let him go to Duke to be an assistant under Coach K. Seriously, you’re dumb. You don’t skip anything to go to a Duke/UNC game if you’re a professional player. Tape it. They pay you millions to play, not to jump on a plane and head to Chapel Hill. So leave. I don’t care that you scored like 35 that one game. He sucks. I hate him.
Finally, Ben Gordon… I’ve never seen a player that went from clutch to a guy that didn’t want the ball as often as Gordon. There’s one team that should trade for him/sign him, and that’s the Knicks. He ALWAYS plays well in the Garden, and had his best moments there. And they could use a few more guards that just chuck. But in all seriousness, there’s no room for him on the Bulls. They would have to give him 5+ guaranteed years at 50+ million. He’s simply not needed anymore.

When you look at all the depth the Bulls could have at the 4 and 5 positions, taking Rose would signal that they are ok with Noah and Gooden starting and Thomas backing up both positions, with Noc and Deng sometimes filling in at the 4. Thomas has improved, but it always seems that he starts slow, and usually hits his stride as the season wears on. He has the talent to be like K-Mart, and he’s only 22. But is he motivated? Noah is the smart player that coaches love. He has great hands, and is a great rebounder. He runs the court well and has a lot of intangibles. While he may only progress into a rich man’s Anderson Varejao, it’s good enough to be a top 5 center in the East. Gooden showed that he can have the offense run through him, although he isn’t the best passer. He reminds some of David West, and while he will never be an All-Star, he can fill that kind of role with the Bulls. So where exactly does Beasley fit in? He fits in better if you deal Gooden or Deng, but do you make the team better?

Next time, we’ll continue with the Bulls dilemma, and discuss why Beasley would be better.

The Brewers Are Screwed

2008-04-23T03:15:00.002-05:00

Put it on a plate, play make believe and call this a sit-down meal, whatever you want, but you can't gussy this sort of thing up with condiments and call it palatable. It's merely stupid where it isn't perhaps more fundamentally indecisive. Fourteen pitchers? As in, one-four fourteen? Where the second digit's more than three and less than five? Really? Even allowing for Ben Sheets' latest breakdown, and any sensible front-office reluctance to rush to judgment on what to do about that, this seems crazy.
For the moment, we'll skip what this punts in terms of in-game strategy and tactics; that's easy, and we'll get to it in a bit. There are also the twin considerations of Kid Gwynn's recuperation and the countdown until Mike Cameron can come back; get them back in action, and it's not unreasonable to think that on an NL roster with eight everyday players, a five-man bench and a twelve-man pitching staff make sense. But that's then, off in the future, not now, and in the meantime, how do you wind up with 14 pitchers and have it make sense? Let alone plausibly find ways to employ all of them that are worth the potential tactical cost that effectively forgoing most in-game management on offense involves?
Well, we've touched on the Sheets thing, which gets us to 13 if you consider Gallardo's activation as something of a temporary one-for-one swap in the rotation. That's where much of the attention—and any plausible defense for this bit of nonsense—rests, because everyone's curious about how Ned Yost and Doug Melvin will eventually resolve the problem. The problem isn't picking a rotation from this crew, any more than there should be any drama as to who starts once Sheets is out of action. It should be a pretty straightforward matter of picking between Villanueva and Parra for the fifth slot, with the only complicating factor being Bush's performance and whether or not that costs him his job to either of the young non-Gallardo guns. Even so, Bush's projection is a reflection of his having had a down year in 2007, something that should offer the Brewers some reassurance before they start bugging out over his first three starts this season.
No, the problem isn't with having six starters, one of whom just came off of the DL, and one who struggle yet again to avoid it. Instead, the real problem is a decision to carry eight relievers. Even allowing for the fact that you can't count on using Bush as a long reliever in light of Sheets' health woes, which make it so you can't count the extra starter as a relief option for more than a night or two, there's the more basically corrosive issue of multiple redundancies. Sign David Riske to a multi-year deal? A worthwhile chance to take in isolation, sure. Sign Eric Gagné to a big one-year contract? Again, a defensible choice. You do already have Derrick Turnbow, who's run hot and cold, but has his uses. Stack that with a situational lefty or two, and you're almost full up. Except that isn't where the Brewers stopped. Guillermo Mota? Skip the last few years; maybe you can iron him out as well, and you never know if Gagné breaks down again. Of course, Mota isn't quite so reliable either, and neither is Riske; they've both struggled and/or gotten hurt, and maybe you just have to have somebody else as well. So sure, trade for Soloman Torres too, because you can never be too careful; them rascally pitchers will go south on you in no time, so why not acquire four, and keep a pair of situational lefties on the 40-man, and keep Turnbow, and... well, heck, Seth McClung's thrown fastballs for strikes now and again, and how can you not want him too?
The problem gets to be one of options, and whether you can keep everyone simultaneously. Maybe the Brewers made an elaborate bet with themselves, that perhaps not everyone in this bullpen would be healthy, and perhaps not all of them would have to be on the active roster at once. That's not an unreasonable gamble—pitch'em all, and let fate sort the bodies out. Claudio Vargas was out of options, and in the face of plenty of reassuring spring performances, the Brewers understood that discarding a basically adequate fifth-starter type wasn't that expensive a decision to make, in isolation. The problem is that Vargas was just one of those kinds of decisions, and the Brewers had to repeat that same call with Turnbow and with McClung, on top of not being able to move any of the signed-up vets, at which point you've got a lot of non-moving parts instead of a layering of interchangeable options that allow you to manage talent and overcome in-season injuries or bad patches. So now they're afraid to pitch Turnbow—except that he's unmovable, so you have a roster spot committed to a guy who's barely giving the team more than an inning per week, and given his control issues, someone you can't even give work to if you're going to demonstrate that he's in operating condition, because you're afraid of a four-walk disaster while he gets familiar with seeing live game action. (Sure enough, the Brewers brought in Turnbow last night after nearly a week off, and he lost a tie game by putting four men on base, including a walk and a hit batsman.) You've got McClung pitching mop-up duty once a week, and he's another guy you're afraid to use in a tight game, yet another guy you like too well to risk waivers with. You've got two situational lefties—and to be fair, both Shouse and Stetter have their uses in the role—because you've got to keep up with the Joneses. You've got Mota and Torres putting lots of guys on base, but you're congratulating yourself because they haven't taken a really bad drubbing. Yet.
It really boils down to the danger of getting everything you wanted in the wide world of pitching, and then having to reconcile that with the somewhat more sticky reality of how to fit it all in your toybox. At some point, the Brewers are likely to run up against Mota's inconsistency and Mota's age and increasingly sporadic usefulness, problems that might only compound the perils of counting on McClung and/or Turnbow. Heck, face it, Gagné isn't exactly a reliable commodity for that matter. And at the end of the day, the fact that nobody on the staff is a sure thing is a great way to wind up repeating the past errors of previous toasty Yost pens, lurching back and forth between one formerly famous and some sporadically talented reliever, searching for the hot hand, and in the end never actually resolving the matter of who to keep, and why.
For that crowded uncertainty, there are of course the other fringe benefits, like a non-existent bench. Yost has been pretty conventional in how he's used—or more appropriately, not used—his backup catcher, Mike Rivera, which leaves you with a two-man bench, or Craig Counsell plus a Gabe to be determined (Kapler or Gross), fighting over who gets to hold the bag of pistachios. You can aggressively double-switch to flip the pitcher's spot to a point as late in the game as possible, but that's a trick you can't pull all that often, and it's one you have to make sooner because you're batting the pitcher eighth. The alternative to not doing that is plain enough—on Sunday in a 1-1 tie game in the top of the eighth, the lead batter (Gabe Gross) gets on, the pitcher's up, and... Gallardo hits for himself, doesn't advance the runner, and Gross winds up stranded. You have eight guys in the pen, and only one—Gagné—has worked the two nights previous, and he's actually been on the mound three straight nights. Guess who's damned and doomed to work a fourth straight game and lose later that same night? Last night, with Gross again leading off late, bottom of the seventh in a tie game, pitcher due up, and Yost puts in... Jeff Suppan, to bunt Gross over. Baserunning funnies keep them from scoring, and you've got to figure Gagné isn't on the menu, but they're playing for one run.
Now, obviously some of this will get better. Tony Gwynn Jr. should be back shortly, and Mike Cameron not too long after that, although the one might end up replacing the other. Even so, a pitcher's almost certainly going to have to get out of the way. (Exacerbating the Brewers' roster management issues, Gross is also out of options, so he's another use-him-or-lose-him guy.) That still leaves the quandary of carrying only one reserve infielder, one of a number of reasons why having a multi-position guy like Dillon around was sensible, but on a roster where you have so many regulars, that's a minor thing; as Earl Weaver would note, if you suffer an injury in-game, you can find your backup [infielder] in [Nashville]. The real issue is when you're punting offensive opportunities because you don't have pinch-hitters. What then is the point of carrying all of those pitchers? To make a series of showy mid-inning changes, letting them face a batter or two? Except Yost isn't doing that—it's a more basic case of not trusting a couple of the pitchers he has as well as working around an injury.
You can't use fourteen pitchers. Barring making your whole pitching staff an exercise in non-stop pen starts, nobody can. Instead, Melvin's abdicated responsibility for designing a usable roster, and Yost runs the risk of abdicating in-game tactical oversight in the absence of alternatives. As smart as the Brewers have been managing so many of the big-picture things—the transition from the veteran temps Melvin and Yost initially employed to the homegrown blue chippers chief among them—it's a pity to see them flub something that could hurt them in what figures to be yet another tight NL Central race.

2008 Cubs Projections (Hitters)

2008-03-30T23:11:00.001-05:00

Seeing as tomorrow is opening day, I want to release my predictions for the 2008 Cubs. These are merely predictions, but if this team puts up these numbers, they will be the NL representative in the World Series.

We’re going to start with the hitters, with the projected lineup.

Ryan Theriot - .274/.336/.351 – 2 HR, 29 RBI and 35 SB
1 Theriot’s biggest skill is his speed, which makes him the best candidate to lead off in the Cubs lineup. Piniella wants to have a quick guy at the top of the lineup not only for stolen base purposes, but to “make things happen on the bases.” Theriot isn’t my favorite player, but I admire his hustle. Do not compare him to Eckstein, Theriot is a different player, and more talented. That being said, if the Cubs want to win a World Series in 2008, an upgrade needs to be made at both the leadoff spot and at shortstop.
Alfonso Soriano - .291/.352/.553 – 37 HR, 93 RBI and 14 SB
2 Soriano has settled into Chicago this year, and will not feel pressure. At first, I didn’t like this move, as Soriano typically hits better in the leadoff spot. But, he will see more fastballs batting ahead of Lee and Ramirez, as well as see fastballs when Theriot’s on base. Therefore, look at his HR to jump a little, and look for his stolen bases to drop. Somehow he’s only 85% after a winter to rest his legs…
Derrek Lee - .316/.408/.543 – 31 HR, 110 RBI and 9 SB
3 Lee is going to really have a big year this year, not going back to 2005 form, but bouncing back to have a really solid, healthy year. His wrist is finally 100%, which it wasn’t last year, as was showed by only 6 first half home runs. But in the second half, he hit 16, showing that his wrist is ready to go for 2008.
Aramis Ramirez - .307/.368/.589 – 37 HR, 121 RBI
4 The power numbers for Aramis should jump this year, as he finally has protection with Fukudome behind him instead of Floyd or Jones. The hitters ahead of him will be getting on at a higher clip than ever before. Although I do not believe in “clutch hitters,” Ramirez is an exception. His .293 average w/ RISP and his ability to put the ball in play makes 130 RBI a possibility.
Kosuke Fukudome - .279/.383/.499 – 14 HR, 71 RBI and 14 SB
5 Honestly, I am not as high on Fukudome as a lot of people are. I think the transition period will be harder for him than most. He’s not that lefty 25 HR threat that I was hoping for, but he’s solid. I understand we brought him in to break up the righties, but he needs to be hitting 2nd. Anyways, Fukudome has a hybrid Matsui/Ichiro swing that suits him more for line drives than home runs. These stats would be on the lower end, but he could touch .300 for parts of the year.
Mark DeRosa – .278/.369/.450 – 17 HR and 68 RBI
6 This may be the year DeRosa sees his power numbers climb. Why? He’s hitting lower in the order, so his focus may change a little at the plate. The goal isn’t necessarily to be a table setter, rather to be a run producer. Therefore, there will be a drop in batting average, but if he can stay away from freak injuries and see 600 plate appearances, his numbers will jump to the next level. Brian who?
Geovany Soto - .281/.356/.481 – 21 HR and 76 RBI
7 Soto has to make sure that he makes proper adjustments at the plate when pitchers realize he pulls EVERYTHING. Gerald Perry has made sure he uses the whole field in BP and in ST. If he listens, he could touch .290, and possibly .300 in future years. But for now, I have Soto at .281 with a high slugging percentage because he rakes on inside pitches. He has already learned the pitching staff, and he’s on pace for 130 games.
Felix Pie - .266/.324/.455 – 13 HR, 48 RBI and 23 SB
8 I really hope he does better than this, but anyone who doesn’t think there will be growing pains just isn’t thinking subjectively. He’s shown the ability to take a walk in spring, but still has a tendancy to expand the zone a little. If he wants to be a superstar, he has to look at a few more pitches. Hitting 8th will hurt him in the short term, because he will get nothing to hit with the pitcher behind him, especially in RBI situations. He can fly, but the fact that he’s hitting 8th will limit his SB attempts. Don’t be surprised if Lou plays with him at the 2 spot.

Disappointment

2008-03-22T22:15:00.000-05:00

Let me just start it off this way…this is not just a game to those of you reading my blog. I know a lot of you care a ton, maybe more than you should. But, at least try to feel for these guys. Sure, it’s only basketball, but they bust their asses and give 4 years of their life to accomplishing one goal. A smart person once told me that “sports are part of identity and happiness.” Great way to put it.

Think of what they’re like right now. I care about this team probably way too much. Most people don’t know these guys as people, but they’re great. They’ll play catch with you in the AL, they’ll talk to you about pointless shit at media day, they go out of their way in the stairwells to say hi to you. They are taking this so hard. Think about Dwight, he did all he could to stop Brook Lopez all night, and when he did the best he could possibly do, he didn’t succeed. But Dwight probably feels like he failed, and it’s going to kill him. Think about Fitzy, his last game might have been his most clutch (outside of Seton Hall) of the season. He scored 13, grabbed rebounds, hit big shots. Or Ouse and Trend, this was the last game for all three of them.

So, I know it may be hard to do, especially this early after Brook Lopez stabbed us in the hearts, but let’s try to look at the positives this year. I was crushed, but I wasn’t fuming. I feel for these guys, more than I’ve ever felt for anyone in sports. But the fact that we stayed with a team that may go to the Final Four is amazing. What a great game, and look at how far we’ve come…

To begin, we go to Maui and play with one of the best programs in the country, all the way down to the last minute. A few different calls and that game goes our way. Remember the heart we played with? But it was a great tournament, and gave us great experience for the season to come.

And we needed it in Madison. We went into the Kohl’s Center, where nobody wins, and won. Whenever fans from Wisconsin are walking to their cars with 5 minutes to go, you know we beat them pretty good. It was a game where Dominic took over, and where Dwight came out of his shell.

Our fourth conference game of the year put us vs. Notre Dame, a team with the Big East player of the year. We took care of business…wait, we beat the shit out of them. Read on…

We became a national team to watch when Dwyane Wade decided he wanted his commercial filmed at the BC. Everyone got free shirts, and we celebrated the 2003 final four team. Then we went out and hammered Pitt (the eventual Big East champions) by 18. Remember, we were 6-5 in conference, and almost fell out of the rankings. Huge win for us, and started a 5 game win streak.

…Then decided to beat them in the Big East tournament, got the farthest we’ve ever gotten in the tournament, and received a 6 seed in the NCAA tournament. I hate ND, most of you do as well, so this was very sweet.

Maybe the biggest of all of our accomplishments was the tournament win vs. UK. It was the first Tom Crean win in the NCAA tournament without Wade. If you think that it’s not a big deal, look at the former powerhouses (UK, UConn, Syracuse, Florida, Cal) that haven’t been a sure thing in the tournament. Winning a game in the NCAA’s is progress. Being on national TV 8 or 9 times is progress. NEVER FALLING OUT OF THE TOP 25 IS PROGRESS.

I thought to myself, what would make this season a success? A Sweet 16 trip was my goal, and we were one point away from it. But think of what this team is made of…

…Heart. We fought every game. Sure we got blown out on the road, but never had a “bad loss.” Did you ever think, “why does Jay Bilas love Marquette?” It’s because we get every loose ball, we scrap for steals, we hound you on the defensive end and piss you off. Have you noticed how many times other teams whine, bitch and moan about us? That’s because they’re pissed that we want it more. Did you notice how Trevon Hughes got pissed at Dominic because he couldn’t shake him off? We’re not the most talented, and we were definitely a little short in the post, but we would fight.

How about Trevor? Sure, people are going to be pissed that we took him off of redshirt, but nobody knew that Trevor was going to be taken off if he could get back into shape. That’s what Crean promised him. Crean was a man of his word. Trevor busted his ass. He shouldn’t have seen the court till May, but he was constantly working. That’s heart. That’s doing everything you can possibly do to help your teammates accomplish something.

Combining this with what Dominic did against Joe Crawford (after scoring 35 points and fouling out, Dominic went and shook his hand) I couldn’t be prouder. This is the school WE go to. This is the team that represents us. Face it, Dwyane got us on the map. And most people associate schools with the way they do in athletic competition. I knew about MU when I was 15, but I looked more into this place when Wade took us far. And now to have the nation see that we have great PEOPLE representing the school is amazing. It truly makes me feel proud to go to this school.

But guess what, these guys aren’t satisfied. This is going to be so hard for some to take, but I know that a lot of these guys will use it as motivation. You’re telling me Jerel’s going to leave now? Hell no. I doubt Dominic even thinks about leaving. Crean said when D.J. committed that “I’m going to give the ball to Dominic and tell him to bring it back to me when he’s done with it.” He’s not done with it, yet.

Thank you Tom Crean. Sure, I’m part of a radio show where 3 of us rip you a new one at times, but you took a team that didn’t have a guy bigger than 6’9’’ and didn’t have a true power forward after Trevor went down, and made us a very good rebounding team. You made them into the defensive team they were. Sure, you “may not be able to recruit or coach big men” to some, but fuck them. You took 3 2-star big men (Ous, Trend, Dwight) and made them into pretty good rebounders. YOU TOOK A TEAM THAT WAS GOING AGAINST 2 7-FOOT GIANTS AND WON THE BATTLE ON THE BOARDS AND HAD MORE SECOND CHANCE POINTS. That’s because of you, Tom. You were never satisfied with a game if we lost the rebounding battle. They had the heart, and you knew it. You worked with them, kicked them in the ass, and made this team a contender. Great work, and I hope nobody has anything bad about the way you coached this final game, because it was damn near flawless.

The only anger I had tonight was concerning some reactions from other fans. Coming from the biggest McNeal hater in the city of Milwaukee, do not TRY and tell me the reason we lost is Jerel’s fault. So he missed a three to go to OT. So he missed a 15 footer. Guess what, he was feeling it. FEELING IT. If he drives to the hoop at the end of regulation, the percentage that he’s going to make it decreases. He had space, and if he would have gotten into the paint, there would have been 2 7-footers waiting for him. He got us that far, and in OT he hit three 3’s. HUGE!!!! He countered every Lopez bucket, except his last shot. Is he to blame?! Fuck no. Don’t even TRY to tell me he’s the reason we lost. If you’re going to blame it on anyone, blame Brook Lopez. Or even better, leave a comment as to the reason we ost.

So here we are, 25-10, 5th place in the Big East (The BEST BASKETBALL CONFERENCE). We should be proud to have guys that represent MU like this, and proud that we got a tournament win. Next year will be special.

Some random thoughts 3/21/08 ...

2008-03-21T18:04:00.002-05:00

First of all, let's start with something that's been on my mind for quite some time. It's regarding Buffalo Wild Wings. There are a few things you can nickname Buffalo Wild Wings with. I use B-Dubs. Many use the standard BWW. But, it IS NOT B-W-Threes. Threes?! Threes?! Where in the fuck does the Three come from?! There's two W's. And 1 B. Stop using that term. It's incorrect and just plain stupid.

Second of all, I don't know how much of you were intently watching the final seconds of the MU game, as most of you were breathing a sigh of relief, but Dominic James did something amazing yesterday. Joe Crawford, the senior guard/forward from UK had fouled out with 35 points. He was their only option at times, and he played one helluva game. So James came up to him, as Wes Matthews was going to the line, and shook his hand. Dominic didn't have to, but wished him luck in the future. That's class. That's who I want representing Marquette. And as for much shit as I have given him in the past 2 months, he's played with a broken (probably) wrist, a rolled ankle and so much heart. This just adds to how great he's been for the school. When he returns next year, and becomes the school's all time leading scorer, I will definitely be thrilled that it's him because he represents Marquette the way people should. So screw anyone that doesn't think he has heart, plays at 100% and go fuck yourself if you think that this team would be better without him. FALSE!

Finally, fuck Kentucky fans. I used to really hate Louisville... I mean I thought Pitino was a jag, I hated Jerry Smith for hitting that shot, and I thought their fans we're douchebags. After further review, they're not so bad. They're pretty classy, and Pitino is a nice guy. Really nice guy. And I know they have a huge rivalry with UK, but fuck everyone at UK. They're pompus. They let their "storied tradition" make up for their current shitty team with a drunk coach.

Stop the Pursuit of Brian Roberts

2008-03-19T10:40:00.001-05:00

The rumors need to stop. I’m sick of hearing how this deal will get done. Let’s face it, it’s not going to happen.

First, Cubs fans have to realize that the Orioles are run by a bunch of idiots. Peter Angelos has nixed three or four trades so far, and was VERY close to screwing over the Bedard deal. The Orioles have a shot to obtain three good minor league players for Roberts. Why keep Roberts when you have no chance to compete this year?

Second, DeRosa’s getting pissed. He said it today on the Score 670, he said that “it’s been hard to stay very professional. It’s frustrating to deal with it. I read the reports as well, but it’s still frustrating. I signed a contract to do what I did last year, solidify the infield and get some big hits. If that’s taken away from me, I’m not going to sit well with it.” That’s enough for me. Championship teams have something that stats cannot measure. Sure, it may be cliché, but doesn’t chemistry play a role here? We’re already going to piss off some of the team when the rotation is finalized. We’re already pissing off others by publically talking about getting Crisp, too. Screw it, we don’t need anything in our lineup right now. DeRosa is a great guy, and if you’re looking for another thing stats cannot measure, look at how many big hits he got last year.

Third, we don’t need Roberts. There, I said it. Sure, he’s definitely an upgrade over DeRosa, because he can swipe 50 bases, and because he can switch hit. That would be wonderful at the top of the order. But is Roberts worth giving up Gallagher, Patterson, Colvin, Veal, Marshall or Ceda? No. DeRosa had a very similar line to Roberts last year .293/.370/.420 for DeRosa compared to Roberts .290/.377/.423.

Fourth, Soriano is fine as a lead-off hitter. Everyone has this traditional view about Soriano not being your typical get on base, steal second, go to third on a bunt, score on a sac fly type leadoff hitter. (Yikes) But guess what, he’s a .304 hitter at the top of the lineup, with a .344 OBP. He can give the Cubs the lead on the very first pitch. When he leads off an inning, he’s hit 89 of his career 241 homeruns.
Don’t even TRY to say that Soriano would be great in the 5th or 6th spot. He’s shit there. Why? Because he presses when the lights are on him. He strikes out 29 percent on the time with RISP, with a .252 average. Only 41 of his 224 home runs are with RISP. The bigger the at bat, the more he strikes out. He belongs in the leadoff spot, or maybe the 2nd spot. So is it good to get Roberts if Soriano hits .240 at the 5 or 6 spot?

Finally, the biggest reason I don’t want Roberts is because I want to save these prospects. I know most of them are blocked, but let’s hang on to them. There’s a certain pitcher in Oakland that I really want to go for instead: Joe Blanton. Blanton gives the Cubs a consistent starter with a great sinker. He would pitch great in Chicago with his ground ball rate. 14-8, 3.95 in the AL could translate to 16 or even 17 wins with a full season in Chicago, with a 3.60 ERA. Could Gallagher one day reach these numbers? Sure, but more realistically he could also equal the career 1.31 WHIP, 4.10 ERA with more K/9 than Blanton. Again, the A’s keep Blanton when you can deal for pieces to be used in 2009, 2010 or 2011 when they can compete again.

In pennant races, it comes down to starting pitching. We have the best bullpen in the NL, and a very good lineup, top 5 in the NL. The rotation, though, is a bit shaky. We have Zambrano, who hasn’t shown the consistency to be considered an ace. We have Lilly, who gives up too many runs and home runs to be considered an ace. Lilly also had a breakout year last year, so you cannot count on his consistency. Rich Hill either has his command or he doesn’t, definitely not consistent. Lieber is too old, and could break down over the season. Dempster hasn’t started since 2003, and Marquis sucks. This rotation reeks of inconsistency. That’s why we need Blanton, a guy who can throw 230 quality innings, throw strikes and get ground balls.

So in the end, Roberts marginally improves this team, where as Blanton takes this rotation from above average to good, possibly even great.

Predicting the Opening Day Roster

2008-03-18T16:58:00.003-05:00

Here goes nothing. I'm doing this for discussion purposes. We all can guess about 20 Cubs that will make the 08 roster, but let's see what you guys think. This is my prediction.

Position Players
C - Geovany Soto
C - Henry Blanco
1B - Derrek Lee
1B - Daryl Ward
2B - Mark DeRosa
2B - Mike Fontenot
SS - Ryan Theriot
3B - Aramis Ramirez
3B - Alex Cintron
LF - Alfonso Soriano
CF - Felix Pie
RF - Kosuke Fukudome
RF - Matt Murton

Pitchers
SP - Carlos Zambrano
SP - Ted Lilly
SP - Jon Lieber
SP - Rich Hill
SP - Jason Marquis
RP - Ryan Dempster
RP - Kevin Hart
RP - Scott Eyre
RP - Mike Wuertz
RP - Bob Howry
RP - Carlos Marmol
CL - Kerry Wood

Some comments: I would love to see Gallagher as the long man in the pen, but it's going to go to Dempster, as he is owed a lot more money. Unfortunately, Lou will find out that Micah Hoffpauir is an average athlete, and since he's left-handed and can do the same things Daryl Ward can, Micah is out of luck. I don't think that any of this is what they "SHOULD" do. But I feel it's what will happen.

EDIT: (3/18) Tim Lahey is not making his team after today
Ronny Cedeno helped his cause, putting him back into the race for backup IF spot.

Kerry Wood: Closer

2008-03-18T16:41:00.004-05:00

Let's hear reason #1 as to why Kerry Wood shouldn't be the closer for the Cubs in 2008. Jay Marriotti greets us this morning with this wonderful article. This worst journalist in Chicago has gotten worse. He fails to use logic when he opens his mouth on ESPN, and has failed to use his head when he wrote this article.

In this article, he mentions the possibility of Kerry Wood falling apart this year, now that he’s the closer. Sure, Wood is definitely not a sure thing, but it’s the first time he’s hit 98 in ST since his injuries. He’s throwing without pain. His slider is sharper than ever. Why wouldn’t he be the closer?

Marriotti forgets that as the closer, you don’t throw every game. A closer pitches when:
a) when ahead by three or less runs in the ninth inning.
b) in a tie game possibly in the 9th or extra innings.
c) when the game is wrapped up just to get some work in.

Most closers throw from 60-70 innings, for an average of 10-15 innings per month. That’s it. Setup men could throw up to 100-120 innings in a season. Using this logic, setup men can be more valuable. You can’t get to the 9th without getting past the rally the opposing team throws at you in the 7th or 8th. Wood cannot be counted on to throw five times a week, in stressful situations. Wood can be counted on to come in two times or three times a week.

Who can be counted on to stop the 2nd and 3rd with one out rally? The same guy that did it all last year. Carlos Marmol means more to the Cubs as a fireman than a closer. How many games did Marmol pitch in August and September? A ton, it seemed like he came in for 80% of the games, and for more than one inning. While Marmol may be the closer of the future for this team, this year he’s more valuable as the rally killer. Remember, not all World Series winning teams have their best pitchers in their pen as their closers. 2001 saw K-Rod as the fireman, with Percival as the closer. 1996 saw Mariano Rivera as the fireman, with John Wettland as the closer.

It’s not a case of thinking with your heart, Jay. Could it be that Piniella and Hendry are worried about preserving the best bullpen in the National League? Maybe you should start thinking with your brain rather than your ass.

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/mariotti/847567,mariotti031808.article

MU @ Stanford

2008-03-16T21:48:00.003-05:00

Yep, it's at Stanford. I'm pissed.

But you know what, I really don't give a shit. We're gonna beat the Jolly Green Giants. And we may beat them by as much as 10 or 15.

Brook Lopez is good. He's at 19 points per game, 8.5 rebounds per game and 2.2 blocks per game. He's going to be a top ten pick in the NBA. We have to make sure he doesn't take over this game. Dwight gives up 3 or 4 inches, but that may not matter. If Lopez catches the ball 15-18 feet away, it's a much different Stanford team.

Robin Lopez is solid as well, averaging around 10 points per game and 6 rebounds per game. But guess what, Robin doesn't take over games. His high is 16 in the Pac-10 and his high is 24 on the season (against Yale, come on). He can be a force on the offensive glass, but he can foul himself into trouble and not be there to help his brother.

We often talk about match-up problems for Marquette when it comes to size. But when has size killed us this year?

Hibbert got his 21 points and 8 boards, but was he the reason why we lost to Georgetown? No, it was Wallace that caught fire, and caught breaks.

Thabeet beat us, but Brook Lopez is not Thabeet on the defensive end. Thabeet and Adrien killed us because we allowed their guards to penetrate into the lane, giving easy dunks to those two. If we stop the penetration, we don't fall behind by 30 @ UConn.

Can Stanford run? Not nearly as well as Marquette can. Stanford has trouble when they play teams that are superior athletically. Even though they beat Arizona twice, Arizona had the game go their way when they pushed the tempo. Keep in mind Arizona's best player didn't play in those games. If he would of, it's a different game, and maybe we're not talking about Stanford being a 3-seed. They lost to USC, a team that ran them to death. They lost to Oregon, another run and gun team. They also lost to Arizona State, a team that doesn't have any big men. We can run them out of the gym. Their guards cannot stick with ours. Jerel needs to stay out of foul trouble, and Dominic needs to get better looks. Those aren't hard things to do at this stage of the game.

How are their guards? Junior Anthony Goods just pulls. From everywhere. He's taken 170 3-pointers this year, and hit only 60. Mitch Johnson shoots goofy, and averages like 6 points per game. They're just not up to par athletically with Marquette. Their guards score from jump shots, and threes. They cannot get to the cup, and won't against a great defensive guard tandem. Lawrence Hill may provide the biggest match-up problem with us. He's athletic, 6'8'' and 215, but Lazar should be able to hold him down. Hill has random games where he scores 14 to 16 points, but other games where he doesn't hit double digits. Drew Schiller is their best outside shooter, but doesn't play a lot due to the fact that he can't guard anyone. Period. So he's our version of Christopherson. This doesn't scare me at all!

Look at our stats compared to Stanford. They average two more blocks per game, we average five more steals. We also average 4 more points per game then we do. Then the rest of the stats are basically even. There's not a percentage difference in FT%, 3PT%, FG%. We can run the twin towers out of the gym. When we do, and they wear down a little, that's where we can pull away. We have the depth at all five positions, they don't.

The one thing that sucks is that we're playing in Anaheim. Oh well. Marquette fans travel well.

I think as scared as some of us are to play Stanford, Stanford is scared to play us.

Let's go Warriors!!!

Random Tournament Thoughts

2008-03-16T21:24:00.004-05:00

For those of you that have filled out your brackets, you're probably thinking the same thing I am: The Committee is on crack.

First of all, let's look at why Marquette got screwed. Marquette gets a tough game vs. Kentucky, but it doesn't really concern me. Crawford is now their best player, since Pat Patterson is out. Crawford seems to be a guy that Jerel McNeal can shut down. But what really gets me is the fact that we are playing IN ANAHEIM against Stanford. IN CALIFORNIA!!! How ridiculous is that?! Maybe it's just me wishing that we would have been a 6 in the same bracket as teams like Georgetown (2) or Wisconsin (3) and Xavier (3).

Looking at other teams in the tournament, I am surprised by a few things. One, why are we ranked lower than Notre Dame? Because they finished higher in the rankings? Because they had more Big East wins? They have a lower RPI, a much lower SOS, their record against top 50 is slightly better, but not enough to make a difference. Their non conference SOS is a joke and they beat no one of note away from home. We beat them twice, and beat them on the biggest stage of them all, at MSG.

And Purdue got the easiest road to the Sweet 16 of any #6 seed. This is utter bullshit. Why?? Is it the 44 RPI?? Or maybe the stellar 113 SOS?? No, I get it, it has to be their sensational non conference SOS of 264 right?? Oh,I know it was their home losses to Wofford and Iowa State and quarterfinal exit in the tournament to a shitty Illinois team that gives them an easier road right?? Jesus Christ...

Then what about Michigan State? How do they get a 5-seed?? They had two horrible losses, at Penn State and at Iowa. They have a high RPI (16) but they went 6-6 in their final twelve games! Our final twelve, much stronger. Higher SOS, too.

Other travesties: Butler gets a 7. Wow. They lost three games, and I guess losing that game to Drake really hurt them in the eyes of the committee.

Finally, I fucking hate Big-10 basketball. It's boring. It's not well executed. Teams wait til 15 seconds left on the shot clock to run an offense. In the words of Scott Van Pelt: "Big 10 basketball is like watching fat people have sex. Big bodies just flopping around everywhere. It's horriffic." - Well said, Scott.

If there's anything else I forgot, let me know.

Defending the Red Head

2008-03-10T02:18:00.001-05:00

I know that if you’re reading this, you’re probably shaking your head as you’re about to read why Matt Murton should be starting for a big-league team. First reason, I know spring training doesn’t mean much of anything, but when Lou Piniella says that he has the best swing and approach on the team, it’s a very good compliment. Consider that he’s saying that Murton has a better approach than All-Stars Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano. But forget all that, there’s statistical information that proves that he should be starting. Maybe not for my beloved Cubbies, but please Jim, get him somewhere where he can play.
Let’s go over the basic stats first.
BA/OBP/SLG
Career stats: .296/.365/.455 – These are the most popular stats that most knowledgeable fans look at. In the words of Digger Phelps, the guy can flat out get on-base. Period. Additionally, he sees the most pitches per at-bat (shows his good approach) and hits well with two strikes. He showed his power at the end of last season, hitting seven home runs after being called up again in July.
But, let’s dig a little deeper into the stats, the ones that most fans do not look at.
He’s not going to be the best hitter on your team, but placed in certain situations, Murton thrives. For instance, look at place he hit in the lineup.
· .374/.440/.531 in the 6th spot with an insane BABIP of .411
He’s also great with two strikes, showing his professionalism. Most hitters fear hitting with two strikes, but Murton has shown a tendency to take until two strikes, and still put a good swing on a ball.
· .282 with a full count, .240 with 2-2 count, .273 with 1-2 count. Compare it to the rest of the league, and he’s one of the best in the league with two strikes.
Also, look at what happens when he patiently works the count in his favor.
· .378 when ahead in the count.
And you have to be ready when Murton’s in the box.
· .313 with 6 HR on the first pitch. Not quite Soriano, but still deadly on the first pitch.
When the weather heats up, so does Murton.
· 82% of his home runs have come in the second half (23/28).
· .352 in July, .299 in August, .320 in September and October
· .316/.385/.525 in the second half in his career
But is he clutch? Thanks for asking! He is actually, especially in late game situations.
· .302 in tie games and gets on base at a .370 clip. And 8 of his 28 career home runs have given the Cubs the lead.
· .291 in late game situations. (are PA in the 7th or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck.)
The questions about his fielding still remain, I know. I think the pressure really got to him, especially with his indecisions in the outfield. He was sort of learning a new position as well. Sure, left field and right field don’t seem much different on paper. But the ball moves differently, the sun is staring right in your face as a right fielder, and all of the day games can affect a overall defensive point of view. In his natural position, he’s has a career .986 fielding percentage. That’s five errors in 352 chances. In right field, he had 4 errors in 65 chances.
Could it be that he was putting way to much pressure on himself? Sure, that could be true as well. It could also be true that Jim Hendry messed with his mind too often, especially with signing Jacque Jones and Cliff Floyd. Either way, he went to AAA, where he removed the pressure, and proceeded to play PERFECT defense (ok, well at least a 1.000 fielding percentage). He came back and played very serviceable defense in the second half of 2007. His overall career range factor ranks near Matt Holliday, and I really don’t hear a lot of complaining about his defense. It’s also better than Carlos Lee’s range factor, but you frequently see him on “Web Gems.” Ok, El Caballo sucks on defense. I know.
Do I want Murton starting on the Cubs? Unless he can play middle infield, no. Fukudome was a great pickup, and Soriano’s about to have a monster year. Now, Hendry has shown that he will send players to teams where they can contribute. I see him helping out a lot of MLB teams that need a solid contact, high on-base outfielder. He could help Oakland, Seattle, Cleveland, Toronto, New York (Mets), San Francisco, San Diego and Pittsburgh. So please, Jim, get him in another uniform, where he can show what he can do.

Dominic James for Big East POY

2008-01-04T00:32:00.000-06:00

And we all assumed we were finished with cupcake teams...

Ok, maybe that's a little harsh, but a 96-67 beat down over Providence was great to see. What else could you have hoped for? Keep in mind that PC was without their two starting guards. A healthier Friar crew may have equaled a closer game.

Dominic James - At the Marquette/Wisconsin game this year in Madison, an OnMilwaukee.com writer asked whether I was excited that James returned for his junior year. I didn't think twice, told him of course and that 99% of MU was excited that he returned. His response was "MU is a better team without him." Is that so??? Dominic then proceeded to lead MU over Wisconsin, which quieted the fellow writing for OnMilwaukee.com... Point is, Marquette is a better team WITH James, and we will not get to the Final Four without him this year.

Back to tonight, James had a spectacular performance, scoring 21 points, shooting 4-6 from three, and committed ZERO turnovers. He was the team's best player last year, and may be the most improved this year. He's become more mature, not forcing shots or passes. He's also began to take games over. This was another big step for Dominic's career and the future of Marquette Basketball.

So, after one game in the Big East, I am jumping on the Dominic James for Player of the Year in the Big East bandwagon. (Or band-waegon, if you speak Wisconsin) If there isn't one, well then I'm creating it. He has always had the "God Given Talent," and now he's becoming the team's leader. He's handling every situation in the right manner with his added maturity. And at the rate he's going, he's going to make a lot of money in the association for many, many years to come.

After every game, I will post his stats, good and bad, and his total Big East averages and percentages will be in parenthesis.

James: 21 points on 6-11 shooting from the field (55%) 4-6 from three (67%) and 5-6 from the line (83%). Also had 0 turnovers with 6 assists (6.0 A/T)

Other positives from tonight's game: Ousmane Barro - 14 pts, 9 boards, 3 blocks. If we can get that every third game from Ouse, that would be amazing.

Lazar Hayward - Can't make my first post without mentioning my boy, Lazar. Since last October 12th, I said he would make a huge impact, and after a summer practicing with the boys at MU, look at how great he's become. 11 of his first 12 games he's been in double figures. Also averaging 6.6 rebounds per game. Teams and ESPN's Fran Fraschilla or whatever have begun to take notice...

People have been shaking in their boots for the past 2 weeks about Sunday's game in Morgantown. They're a team that sometimes has trouble finding open shots, and if that happens, we win by 10. The worst thing that can happen to a shooter is fatigue. If MU runs all over the place, it'll help them on both ends of the court. Prediction: MU 84 - WVA 79.